ML Analysis — LAKELAND COMMUNITY HOSPITAL
CCN 010125 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
39
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position12/20
Demand Defensibility3/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-14.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -26.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-43.2%, 13.4%]. P28 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 481835.975 | -0.1532 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 606953.525 | +0.1294 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.068 | +0.0383 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.085 | -0.0292 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 111515.326 | -0.0253 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 26%Low turnaround probability (26%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
57.9%
Distress Risk
$7.1M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
10.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P39. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
AL distress rate: 58.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.231 | +0.273 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 481835.975 | +0.065 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.656 | +0.057 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.278 | -0.041 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 40.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.097 | +0.008 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.1M
Current margin: -26.0%
Projected margin: 10.9%
Grade: A
Comps: 60
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.246 | 0.589 | 34.3% | $5.1M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.231 | 0.467 | 23.5% | $1.6M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.278 | 0.457 | 17.9% | $404K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 34.6 | [25.0, 75.0] | P78 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.4% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P6 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |