ML Analysis — PRATTVILLE BAPTIST HOSPITAL
CCN 010108 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
51
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-10.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -16.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-38.6%, 18.0%]. P36 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 972331.291 | -0.0847 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1129470.691 | +0.0650 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.085 | -0.0292 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.141 | +0.0173 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.224 | -0.0162 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 33%Turnaround possible (33%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
44.4%
Distress Risk
$1.5M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-13.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P60. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
AL distress rate: 58.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.704 | -0.166 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.224 | -0.065 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 972331.291 | +0.036 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.107 | +0.018 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 55.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.262 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.5M
Current margin: -16.2%
Projected margin: -13.4%
Grade: D
Comps: 60
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.224 | 0.463 | 23.9% | $1.5M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P51 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |