BAY AREA REHAB HOSPITAL
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
BAY AREA REHAB HOSPITAL is a 151-bed community hospital in HARRIS, TX with $84.9M in net patient revenue and a 20.0% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 56.9% Medicare, 0.0% Medicaid, and 43.1% commercial.
Thesis: Turnaround. Our ML models identify $6.3M in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from 20.0% to 27.3% (+736bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $84.9M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $17.0M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | 20.0% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 73.9% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $562K |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 48.8% |
| Distress Probability ML | nan% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
TX has 583 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -0.7%. The target's margin of 20.0% places it above the state median. Among 165 size-comparable peers (76-302 beds), the median margin is 2.8%. The target performs in line with or above peers.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (76-302), prioritizing same-state peers. 165 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAY AREA REHAB HOSPITAL (Target) | TX | 151 | $84.9M | 20.0% |
| DELL CHILDRENS MEDICAL CENTER | TX | 262 | $901.9M | 25.5% |
| DRISCOLL CHILDRENS HOSPITAL | TX | 215 | $694.3M | 29.4% |
| ROUND ROCK HOSPITAL | TX | 165 | $681.4M | 8.7% |
| HOUSTON METHODIST THE WOODLAND | TX | 292 | $535.9M | 13.9% |
| METHODIST WEST HOUSTON HOSPITA | TX | 270 | $529.7M | 15.5% |
| HILLCREST BAPTIST MEDICAL CENT | TX | 236 | $464.8M | -6.7% |
| THE HEART HOSPITAL BAYLOR PLAN | TX | 109 | $464.6M | 25.7% |
| METHODIST RICHARDSON MEDICAL C | TX | 247 | $449.2M | 14.6% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $6.3M (736bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $1.8M | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $1.7M | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $1.7M | +198bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $1.0M | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $54K | +6bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $17.0M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$6.3M |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $23.2M |
| Current Margin | 20.0% |
| Pro Forma Margin | 27.3% |
| WC Released (1x) | $3.3M |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $26.1M | $174.3M | 6.68x | 46.2% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $26.1M | $200.2M | 7.68x | 50.3% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $23.5M | $229.3M | 9.77x | 57.8% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $23.5M | $257.1M | 10.95x | 61.4% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $28.7M | $134.6M | 4.69x | 36.2% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $28.7M | $157.4M | 5.49x | 40.6% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| Medium | Heavy Medicare dependence | Medicare comprises 56.9% of days; rate updates may lag inflation. Mitigant: CDI/CMI lever directly increases Medicare reimbursement |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 165 hospitals with 76-302 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=166)
- Comp margins: P25=-8.8% / P50=2.8% / P75=13.7%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.