ML Analysis — BAY AREA REHAB HOSPITAL
CCN 673061 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
43
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health16/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position2/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
1.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 20.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-26.7%, 29.9%]. P66 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 450060.775 | +0.1487 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 562315.344 | -0.1420 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0290 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 415694.029 | -0.0152 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.017 | +0.0149 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$6.0M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
27.1%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
TX distress rate: 42.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.739 | -0.199 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.569 | +0.042 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 562315.344 | +0.060 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.488 | +0.053 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 151.000 | +0.000 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.0M
Current margin: 20.0%
Projected margin: 27.1%
Grade: C
Comps: 165
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.431 | 0.833 | 40.2% | $6.0M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.739 | 0.740 | 0.1% | $6K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |