COOK CHILDRENS MEDICAL CENTER
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
COOK CHILDRENS MEDICAL CENTER is a 423-bed large academic medical center in TARRANT, TX with $1.51B in net patient revenue and a 16.5% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 0.6% Medicare, 5.3% Medicaid, and 94.1% commercial.
Thesis: Platform Growth. Our ML models identify $110.9M in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from 16.5% to 23.9% (+736bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $1.51B |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $249.1M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | 16.5% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 57.3% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $3.6M |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 48.9% |
| Distress Probability ML | 45.3% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
TX has 583 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -0.7%. The target's margin of 16.5% places it above the state median. Among 93 size-comparable peers (212-846 beds), the median margin is 4.5%. The target performs in line with or above peers.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (212-846), prioritizing same-state peers. 93 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COOK CHILDRENS MEDICAL CENTER (Target) | TX | 423 | $1.51B | 16.5% |
| UT MD ANDERSON CANCER CENTER | TX | 721 | $4.90B | -0.8% |
| UT SOUTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY HOS | TX | 737 | $2.28B | -4.6% |
| SCOTT AND WHITE MEMORIAL HOSPI | TX | 616 | $1.85B | -10.5% |
| CHILDRENS MEDICAL CENTER OF DA | TX | 377 | $1.56B | 10.3% |
| MEDICAL CITY DALLAS | TX | 819 | $1.33B | 49.7% |
| BAYLOR UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CTR | TX | 800 | $1.26B | 0.4% |
| THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS MEDICA | TX | 819 | $1.19B | -29.9% |
| CHI ST LUKES HEALTH BAYLOR MED | TX | 628 | $1.10B | -9.5% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $110.9M (736bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $31.6M | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $30.1M | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $29.8M | +198bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $18.3M | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $965K | +6bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $249.1M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$110.9M |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $360.0M |
| Current Margin | 16.5% |
| Pro Forma Margin | 23.9% |
| WC Released (1x) | $57.8M |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $383.2M | $2.75B | 7.18x | 48.3% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $383.2M | $3.15B | 8.23x | 52.4% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $344.8M | $3.64B | 10.56x | 60.2% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $344.8M | $4.08B | 11.82x | 63.9% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $421.5M | $2.07B | 4.92x | 37.5% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $421.5M | $2.42B | 5.74x | 41.8% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| Medium | Standard execution risk | RCM improvement requires management buy-in and 12-18 month implementation timeline |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 93 hospitals with 212-846 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=94)
- Comp margins: P25=-9.5% / P50=4.5% / P75=14.7%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.