ENCOMPASS REHABILITATION HOSP
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
ENCOMPASS REHABILITATION HOSP is a 83-bed community hospital in COLLIN, TX with $36.9M in net patient revenue and a 16.1% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 70.8% Medicare, 0.0% Medicaid, and 29.2% commercial.
Thesis: Turnaround. Our ML models identify $2.7M in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from 16.1% to 23.5% (+736bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $36.9M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $6.0M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | 16.1% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 74.0% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $445K |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 69.2% |
| Distress Probability ML | nan% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
TX has 583 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -0.7%. The target's margin of 16.1% places it above the state median. Among 204 size-comparable peers (42-166 beds), the median margin is 1.9%. The target performs in line with or above peers.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (42-166), prioritizing same-state peers. 204 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ENCOMPASS REHABILITATION HOSP (Target) | TX | 83 | $36.9M | 16.1% |
| ROUND ROCK HOSPITAL | TX | 165 | $681.4M | 8.7% |
| THE HEART HOSPITAL BAYLOR PLAN | TX | 109 | $464.6M | 25.7% |
| COLLEGE STATION HOSPITAL | TX | 135 | $397.7M | -0.9% |
| DECATUR COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | TX | 81 | $361.0M | -15.5% |
| CHILDRENS MEDICAL CENTER OF PL | TX | 72 | $336.7M | 20.9% |
| MEDICAL CITY MCKINNEY | TX | 166 | $302.5M | -0.4% |
| ROUND ROCK MEDICAL CENTER | TX | 161 | $296.7M | 25.7% |
| BAYLOR SW MEDICAL CENTER- WAXA | TX | 123 | $273.6M | 15.9% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $2.7M (736bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $775K | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $738K | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $731K | +198bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $449K | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $24K | +6bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $6.0M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$2.7M |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $8.7M |
| Current Margin | 16.1% |
| Pro Forma Margin | 23.5% |
| WC Released (1x) | $1.4M |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $9.2M | $66.5M | 7.25x | 48.6% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $9.2M | $76.1M | 8.30x | 52.7% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $8.3M | $88.1M | 10.67x | 60.6% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $8.3M | $98.5M | 11.94x | 64.2% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $10.1M | $49.9M | 4.95x | 37.7% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $10.1M | $58.2M | 5.77x | 42.0% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| Medium | Heavy Medicare dependence | Medicare comprises 70.8% of days; rate updates may lag inflation. Mitigant: CDI/CMI lever directly increases Medicare reimbursement |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 204 hospitals with 42-166 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=205)
- Comp margins: P25=-11.5% / P50=1.9% / P75=11.2%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.