JOHNSON CITY MEDICAL CENTER
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
JOHNSON CITY MEDICAL CENTER is a 537-bed suburban community hospital in WASHINGTON, TN with $546.1M in net patient revenue and a -8.6% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 16.6% Medicare, 7.3% Medicaid, and 76.1% commercial.
Thesis: Undervalued. Our ML models identify $40.2M in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from -8.6% to -1.2% (+736bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $546.1M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $-46.8M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | -8.6% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 72.8% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $1.0M |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 18.3% |
| Distress Probability ML | 43.6% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
TN has 141 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -0.6%. The target's margin of -8.6% places it below the state median. Among 16 size-comparable peers (268-1074 beds), the median margin is -6.0%. The target's below-peer margin suggests operational improvement opportunity.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (268-1074), prioritizing same-state peers. 16 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JOHNSON CITY MEDICAL CENTER (Target) | TN | 537 | $546.1M | -8.6% |
| ERLANGER MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 750 | $1.09B | -6.4% |
| UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE MEDICA | TN | 698 | $1.08B | -17.6% |
| SAINT THOMAS WEST HOSPITAL | TN | 643 | $1.06B | 0.2% |
| TRISTAR CENTENNIAL MEDICAL CEN | TN | 598 | $991.8M | 23.0% |
| JACKSON-MADISON COUNTY GENERAL | TN | 580 | $797.1M | 1.4% |
| BAPTIST MEM HOSPITAL MEMPHIS | TN | 800 | $766.1M | -12.7% |
| MEMORIAL HEALTH CARE SYSTEM IN | TN | 431 | $583.9M | -9.0% |
| SAINT THOMAS RUTHERFORD HOSPIT | TN | 354 | $447.4M | 1.3% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $40.2M (736bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $11.5M | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $10.9M | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $10.8M | +198bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $6.6M | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $349K | +6bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $-46.8M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$40.2M |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $-6.6M |
| Current Margin | -8.6% |
| Pro Forma Margin | -1.2% |
| WC Released (1x) | $20.9M |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $-71.9M | $93.6M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $-71.9M | $79.6M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $-64.7M | $188.9M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $-64.7M | $186.9M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $-79.1M | $-84.0M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $-79.1M | $-118.1M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| High | Negative operating margin | RCM uplift bridge shows clear path to profitability; working capital release provides near-term cash cushion |
| Low | Low net-to-gross ratio | Large contractual allowances suggest pricing discipline issues. Mitigant: payer renegotiation is an additional upside lever |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 16 hospitals with 268-1074 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=17)
- Comp margins: P25=-10.2% / P50=-6.0% / P75=4.0%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.