SSH - SIOUX FALLS INC
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
SSH - SIOUX FALLS INC is a 24-bed suburban community hospital in MINNEHAHA, SD with $13.6M in net patient revenue and a 16.4% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 62.0% Medicare, 3.1% Medicaid, and 34.9% commercial.
Thesis: Turnaround. Our ML models identify $1000K in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from 16.4% to 23.8% (+737bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $13.6M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $2.2M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | 16.4% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 73.0% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $565K |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 20.9% |
| Distress Probability ML | 43.7% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
SD has 63 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -3.2%. The target's margin of 16.4% places it above the state median. Among 42 size-comparable peers (12-48 beds), the median margin is -3.2%. The target performs in line with or above peers.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (12-48), prioritizing same-state peers. 42 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSH - SIOUX FALLS INC (Target) | SD | 24 | $13.6M | 16.4% |
| SIOUX FALLS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | SD | 33 | $138.8M | 31.7% |
| AVERA SACRED HEART HOSPITAL | SD | 42 | $123.1M | -1.9% |
| AVERA QUEEN OF PEACE | SD | 25 | $122.9M | -5.8% |
| MONUMENT HEALTH SPEARFISH HOSP | SD | 27 | $116.6M | 1.9% |
| SIOUXLAND SURGERY CENTER | SD | 38 | $105.7M | 40.1% |
| BLACK HILLS SURGICAL HOSPITAL | SD | 26 | $91.1M | 15.3% |
| SANFORD ABERDEEN MEDICAL CENTE | SD | 48 | $64.0M | -22.7% |
| HURON REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | SD | 25 | $49.4M | -5.9% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $1000K (737bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $285K | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $271K | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $269K | +199bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $165K | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $10K | +7bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $2.2M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$1000K |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $3.2M |
| Current Margin | 16.4% |
| Pro Forma Margin | 23.8% |
| WC Released (1x) | $520K |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $3.4M | $24.7M | 7.21x | 48.4% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $3.4M | $28.3M | 8.25x | 52.5% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $3.1M | $32.7M | 10.60x | 60.4% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $3.1M | $36.5M | 11.86x | 64.0% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $3.8M | $18.6M | 4.93x | 37.6% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $3.8M | $21.6M | 5.75x | 41.9% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| Medium | Heavy Medicare dependence | Medicare comprises 62.0% of days; rate updates may lag inflation. Mitigant: CDI/CMI lever directly increases Medicare reimbursement |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 42 hospitals with 12-48 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=43)
- Comp margins: P25=-10.5% / P50=-3.2% / P75=8.5%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.