SAN JUAN MUNICIPAL HOSPITAL
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
SAN JUAN MUNICIPAL HOSPITAL is a 151-bed safety-net/medicaid heavy in nan, PR with $41.8M in net patient revenue and a -100.0% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 5.3% Medicare, 52.5% Medicaid, and 42.2% commercial.
Thesis: Undervalued. Our ML models identify $3.1M in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from -100.0% to -147.9% (+736bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $41.8M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $-64.9M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | -100.0% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 53.2% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $277K |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 96.3% |
| Distress Probability ML | 66.8% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
PR has 61 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -8.8%. The target's margin of -100.0% places it below the state median. Among 37 size-comparable peers (76-302 beds), the median margin is -5.7%. The target's below-peer margin suggests operational improvement opportunity.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (76-302), prioritizing same-state peers. 37 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAN JUAN MUNICIPAL HOSPITAL (Target) | PR | 151 | $41.8M | -100.0% |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA DE CAYEY | PR | 225 | $186.2M | 15.0% |
| HOSPITAL DR. ALEJANDRO OTERO | PR | 263 | $129.0M | -1.0% |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA CAGUAS INC | PR | 232 | $114.1M | 6.8% |
| DOCTOR CENTER HOSPITAL MANATI | PR | 258 | $103.4M | 1.6% |
| MAYAGUEZ MEDICAL CENTER | PR | 210 | $102.8M | 7.6% |
| HOSPITAL PAVIA SANTURCE | PR | 156 | $101.9M | -9.4% |
| UNIVERSITY DISCTRICT HOSPITAL | PR | 210 | $97.4M | -43.2% |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 | $92.1M | -3.1% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $3.1M (736bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $878K | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $836K | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $828K | +198bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $509K | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $27K | +6bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $-64.9M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$3.1M |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $-61.9M |
| Current Margin | -100.0% |
| Pro Forma Margin | -147.9% |
| WC Released (1x) | $1.6M |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $-99.9M | $-397.6M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $-99.9M | $-469.8M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $-89.9M | $-492.1M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $-89.9M | $-563.3M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $-109.9M | $-380.5M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $-109.9M | $-454.2M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| High | Negative operating margin | RCM uplift bridge shows clear path to profitability; working capital release provides near-term cash cushion |
| Medium | Elevated Medicaid exposure (52.5%) | Medicaid reimburses below cost in most states. Mitigant: denial reduction lever has highest impact on Medicaid claims |
| High | Elevated distress probability | Model estimates 66.8% probability of financial distress. Mitigant: distressed entry pricing (7-9x) compensates for risk |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 37 hospitals with 76-302 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=38)
- Comp margins: P25=-18.8% / P50=-5.7% / P75=1.2%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.