AULTMAN ORRVILLE HOSPITAL
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
AULTMAN ORRVILLE HOSPITAL is a 25-bed suburban community hospital in WAYNE, OH with $58.1M in net patient revenue and a 3.3% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 15.3% Medicare, 2.1% Medicaid, and 82.6% commercial.
Thesis: Turnaround. Our ML models identify $4.3M in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from 3.3% to 10.6% (+736bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $58.1M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $1.9M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | 3.3% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 37.4% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $2.3M |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 44.4% |
| Distress Probability ML | 49.7% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
OH has 235 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -0.3%. The target's margin of 3.3% places it above the state median. Among 82 size-comparable peers (12-50 beds), the median margin is -2.5%. The target performs in line with or above peers.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (12-50), prioritizing same-state peers. 82 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AULTMAN ORRVILLE HOSPITAL (Target) | OH | 25 | $58.1M | 3.3% |
| THE SURGICAL HOSPITAL AT SOUTH | OH | 24 | $166.6M | -3.1% |
| GALION COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | OH | 25 | $128.2M | 16.6% |
| MARY RUTAN HOSPITAL | OH | 39 | $113.0M | -12.5% |
| AVITA ONTARIO HOSPITAL | OH | 49 | $109.2M | 16.0% |
| MERCY HEALTH-TIFFIN HOSPITAL | OH | 35 | $103.0M | 18.1% |
| ALLIANCE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | OH | 50 | $100.2M | -3.5% |
| JOINT TOWNSHIP DISTRICT MEMORI | OH | 33 | $95.6M | 9.3% |
| FULTON COUNTY HEALTH CENTER | OH | 25 | $95.2M | -7.4% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $4.3M (736bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $1.2M | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $1.2M | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $1.2M | +198bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $707K | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $37K | +6bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $1.9M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$4.3M |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $6.2M |
| Current Margin | 3.3% |
| Pro Forma Margin | 10.6% |
| WC Released (1x) | $2.2M |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $2.9M | $55.4M | 18.85x | 79.9% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $2.9M | $61.9M | 21.06x | 83.9% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $2.6M | $76.9M | 29.10x | 96.2% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $2.6M | $84.7M | 32.04x | 100.0% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $3.2M | $33.0M | 10.22x | 59.2% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $3.2M | $37.4M | 11.57x | 63.2% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| Medium | Standard execution risk | RCM improvement requires management buy-in and 12-18 month implementation timeline |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 82 hospitals with 12-50 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=83)
- Comp margins: P25=-11.5% / P50=-2.5% / P75=11.8%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.