BRUNSWICK HOSPITAL CENTER INC
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
BRUNSWICK HOSPITAL CENTER INC is a 146-bed suburban community hospital in SUFFOLK, NY with $45.9M in net patient revenue and a 3.4% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 16.7% Medicare, 0.3% Medicaid, and 83.0% commercial.
Thesis: Undervalued. Our ML models identify $3.4M in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from 3.4% to 10.8% (+736bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $45.9M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $1.6M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | 3.4% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 93.9% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $314K |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 28.6% |
| Distress Probability ML | 38.1% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
NY has 196 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -17.5%. The target's margin of 3.4% places it above the state median. Among 97 size-comparable peers (73-292 beds), the median margin is -16.6%. The target performs in line with or above peers.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (73-292), prioritizing same-state peers. 97 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRUNSWICK HOSPITAL CENTER INC (Target) | NY | 146 | $45.9M | 3.4% |
| HOSPITAL FOR SPECIAL SURGERY | NY | 200 | $1.12B | -29.3% |
| WHITE PLAINS HOSPITAL | NY | 292 | $884.7M | 8.7% |
| ROSWELL PARK CANCER INSTITUTE | NY | 142 | $772.3M | -40.1% |
| LINCOLN MEDICAL&MENTAL HEALTH | NY | 287 | $693.5M | -22.9% |
| QUEENS HOSPITAL CENTER | NY | 200 | $637.2M | 4.9% |
| JAMAICA HOSPITAL MEDICAL CENTE | NY | 280 | $610.4M | -18.6% |
| NYC HEALTH + HOSPITAL / SOUTH | NY | 252 | $588.5M | -16.5% |
| THE UNITY HOSPITAL OF ROCHESTE | NY | 283 | $571.5M | -17.8% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $3.4M (736bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $964K | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $918K | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $909K | +198bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $559K | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $29K | +6bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $1.6M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$3.4M |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $4.9M |
| Current Margin | 3.4% |
| Pro Forma Margin | 10.8% |
| WC Released (1x) | $1.8M |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $2.4M | $44.1M | 18.38x | 79.0% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $2.4M | $49.3M | 20.54x | 83.0% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $2.2M | $61.2M | 28.35x | 95.2% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $2.2M | $67.4M | 31.22x | 99.0% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $2.6M | $26.4M | 10.01x | 58.5% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $2.6M | $29.9M | 11.33x | 62.5% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| Medium | Standard execution risk | RCM improvement requires management buy-in and 12-18 month implementation timeline |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 97 hospitals with 73-292 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=98)
- Comp margins: P25=-26.4% / P50=-16.6% / P75=-9.3%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.