HAVEN BEHAVIORAL SEN CARE OF ALBUQUR
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
HAVEN BEHAVIORAL SEN CARE OF ALBUQUR is a 48-bed suburban community hospital in BERNALILLO, NM with $11.9M in net patient revenue and a 4.4% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 6.7% Medicare, 0.5% Medicaid, and 92.7% commercial.
Thesis: Turnaround. Our ML models identify $882K in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from 4.4% to 11.8% (+739bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $11.9M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $526K |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | 4.4% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 77.6% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $249K |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 47.5% |
| Distress Probability ML | 43.2% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
NM has 55 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -2.7%. The target's margin of 4.4% places it above the state median. Among 34 size-comparable peers (24-96 beds), the median margin is -3.2%. The target performs in line with or above peers.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (24-96), prioritizing same-state peers. 34 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HAVEN BEHAVIORAL SEN CARE OF A (Target) | NM | 48 | $11.9M | 4.4% |
| GERALD CHAMPION REGIONAL MEDIC | NM | 66 | $245.9M | -11.6% |
| NOR-LEA HOSPITAL | NM | 25 | $131.5M | 0.9% |
| UNM SANDOVAL REGIONAL MEDICAL | NM | 60 | $104.5M | -11.9% |
| CARLSBAD MEDICAL CENTER | NM | 53 | $97.1M | 19.9% |
| SANTA FE MEDICAL CENTER | NM | 36 | $95.0M | -26.5% |
| ESPANOLA HOSPITAL | NM | 70 | $84.1M | -2.3% |
| GILA REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | NM | 25 | $83.6M | -3.6% |
| HOLY CROSS HOSPITAL | NM | 25 | $72.9M | -20.0% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $882K (739bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $251K | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $239K | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $238K | +199bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $145K | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $10K | +8bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $526K |
| + RCM Uplift | +$882K |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $1.4M |
| Current Margin | 4.4% |
| Pro Forma Margin | 11.8% |
| WC Released (1x) | $458K |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $809K | $12.3M | 15.19x | 72.3% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $809K | $13.8M | 17.03x | 76.3% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $728K | $17.0M | 23.28x | 87.7% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $728K | $18.7M | 25.69x | 91.4% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $890K | $7.6M | 8.56x | 53.6% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $890K | $8.7M | 9.74x | 57.6% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| Medium | Standard execution risk | RCM improvement requires management buy-in and 12-18 month implementation timeline |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 34 hospitals with 24-96 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=35)
- Comp margins: P25=-20.6% / P50=-3.2% / P75=8.8%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.