RANKEN JORDAN
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
RANKEN JORDAN is a 60-bed safety-net/medicaid heavy in ST. LOUIS, MO with $67.3M in net patient revenue and a 22.2% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 0.2% Medicare, 26.6% Medicaid, and 73.3% commercial.
Thesis: Turnaround. Our ML models identify $5.0M in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from 22.2% to 29.6% (+736bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $67.3M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $15.0M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | 22.2% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 79.9% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $1.1M |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 82.7% |
| Distress Probability ML | 51.5% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
MO has 138 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -6.2%. The target's margin of 22.2% places it above the state median. Among 50 size-comparable peers (30-120 beds), the median margin is -7.6%. The target performs in line with or above peers.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (30-120), prioritizing same-state peers. 50 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RANKEN JORDAN (Target) | MO | 60 | $67.3M | 22.2% |
| LAKE REGIONAL HEALTH SYSTEM | MO | 105 | $226.8M | -2.7% |
| HANNIBAL REGIONAL HOSPITAL | MO | 86 | $226.2M | -6.8% |
| CAPITAL REGION MEDICAL CENTER | MO | 100 | $224.0M | -17.7% |
| BARNES JEWISH WEST COUNTY HOSP | MO | 68 | $221.1M | 4.9% |
| SAINT LUKES NORTH HOSPITAL | MO | 108 | $183.6M | -6.4% |
| CITIZENS MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DIS | MO | 52 | $178.3M | -19.3% |
| BARNES JEWISH ST. PETERS HOSPI | MO | 110 | $177.0M | 2.7% |
| UNIVERSITY HEALTH LAKEWOOD MED | MO | 117 | $158.8M | -34.6% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $5.0M (736bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $1.4M | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $1.3M | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $1.3M | +198bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $819K | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $43K | +6bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $15.0M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$5.0M |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $19.9M |
| Current Margin | 22.2% |
| Pro Forma Margin | 29.6% |
| WC Released (1x) | $2.6M |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $23.0M | $148.2M | 6.44x | 45.1% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $23.0M | $170.5M | 7.41x | 49.3% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $20.7M | $194.4M | 9.38x | 56.5% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $20.7M | $218.1M | 10.53x | 60.1% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $25.3M | $116.0M | 4.58x | 35.6% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $25.3M | $135.8M | 5.36x | 39.9% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| Medium | Elevated Medicaid exposure (26.6%) | Medicaid reimburses below cost in most states. Mitigant: denial reduction lever has highest impact on Medicaid claims |
| High | Elevated distress probability | Model estimates 51.5% probability of financial distress. Mitigant: distressed entry pricing (7-9x) compensates for risk |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 50 hospitals with 30-120 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=51)
- Comp margins: P25=-16.3% / P50=-7.6% / P75=7.7%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.