PEACE HAVEN ASSOCIATION
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
PEACE HAVEN ASSOCIATION is a 14-bed community hospital in ST. LOUIS, MO with $1.4M in net patient revenue and a -100.0% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 5.1% Medicare, 0.0% Medicaid, and 94.9% commercial.
Thesis: Turnaround. Our ML models identify $120K in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from -100.0% to -104.6% (+851bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $1.4M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $-1.6M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | -100.0% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 68.0% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $101K |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 99.7% |
| Distress Probability ML | nan% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
MO has 138 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -6.2%. The target's margin of -100.0% places it below the state median. Among 38 size-comparable peers (7-28 beds), the median margin is -9.3%. The target's below-peer margin suggests operational improvement opportunity.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (7-28), prioritizing same-state peers. 38 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEACE HAVEN ASSOCIATION (Target) | MO | 14 | $1.4M | -100.0% |
| CASS REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | MO | 25 | $89.9M | 5.4% |
| MISSOURI BAPTIST SULLIVAN HOSP | MO | 25 | $73.4M | 2.7% |
| HEDRICK MEDICAL CENTER | MO | 25 | $63.8M | 5.4% |
| COX-MONETT HOSPITAL | MO | 25 | $63.8M | 8.2% |
| STE. GENEVIEVE CO. MEMORIAL HO | MO | 25 | $61.0M | -6.8% |
| PERRY COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MO | 25 | $60.8M | -9.3% |
| MERCY HOSPITAL CARTHAGE | MO | 25 | $58.4M | 7.9% |
| EXCELSIOR SPRINGS HOSPITAL | MO | 25 | $44.0M | -5.8% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $120K (851bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $35K | +251bp | 12mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $30K | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $28K | +200bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $17K | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $10K | +68bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $-1.6M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$120K |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $-1.5M |
| Current Margin | -100.0% |
| Pro Forma Margin | -104.6% |
| WC Released (1x) | $54K |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $-2.5M | $-9.3M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $-2.5M | $-11.0M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $-2.2M | $-11.4M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $-2.2M | $-13.1M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $-2.7M | $-9.1M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $-2.7M | $-10.9M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| High | Negative operating margin | RCM uplift bridge shows clear path to profitability; working capital release provides near-term cash cushion |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 38 hospitals with 7-28 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=39)
- Comp margins: P25=-17.3% / P50=-9.3% / P75=-0.3%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 27, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.