HARBOR OAKS HOSPITAL
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
HARBOR OAKS HOSPITAL is a 164-bed safety-net/medicaid heavy in MACOMB, MI with $51.5M in net patient revenue and a 19.2% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 10.9% Medicare, 53.9% Medicaid, and 35.2% commercial.
Thesis: Turnaround. Our ML models identify $3.8M in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from 19.2% to 26.6% (+736bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $51.5M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $9.9M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | 19.2% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 87.0% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $314K |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 37.4% |
| Distress Probability ML | 53.6% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
MI has 163 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -5.2%. The target's margin of 19.2% places it above the state median. Among 53 size-comparable peers (82-328 beds), the median margin is -6.8%. The target performs in line with or above peers.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (82-328), prioritizing same-state peers. 53 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HARBOR OAKS HOSPITAL (Target) | MI | 164 | $51.5M | 19.2% |
| TRINITY HEALTH MUSKEGON | MI | 262 | $621.2M | -15.5% |
| TRINITY HEALTH GRAND RAPIDS | MI | 271 | $601.8M | -27.3% |
| HENRY FORD HEALTH MACOMB HOSPI | MI | 303 | $584.5M | -6.9% |
| MYMICHIGAN MEDICAL CENTER MIDL | MI | 195 | $537.8M | -9.6% |
| METROPOLITAN HOSPITAL | MI | 201 | $512.0M | -11.3% |
| LAKELAND MEDICAL CENTER ST. J | MI | 235 | $488.2M | -3.6% |
| HENRY FORD WEST BLOOMFIELD HOS | MI | 191 | $446.0M | 5.5% |
| MCLAREN FLINT | MI | 276 | $443.4M | -1.8% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $3.8M (736bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $1.1M | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $1.0M | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $1.0M | +198bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $627K | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $33K | +6bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $9.9M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$3.8M |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $13.7M |
| Current Margin | 19.2% |
| Pro Forma Margin | 26.6% |
| WC Released (1x) | $2.0M |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $15.2M | $103.2M | 6.77x | 46.6% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $15.2M | $118.5M | 7.78x | 50.7% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $13.7M | $136.0M | 9.91x | 58.2% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $13.7M | $152.4M | 11.11x | 61.9% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $16.8M | $79.3M | 4.73x | 36.5% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $16.8M | $92.7M | 5.53x | 40.8% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| Medium | Elevated Medicaid exposure (53.9%) | Medicaid reimburses below cost in most states. Mitigant: denial reduction lever has highest impact on Medicaid claims |
| High | Elevated distress probability | Model estimates 53.6% probability of financial distress. Mitigant: distressed entry pricing (7-9x) compensates for risk |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 53 hospitals with 82-328 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=54)
- Comp margins: P25=-13.5% / P50=-6.8% / P75=-0.2%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.