SAGE REHAB HOSPITAL
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
SAGE REHAB HOSPITAL is a 20-bed suburban community hospital in E. BATON ROUGE PARISH, LA with $13.4M in net patient revenue and a 2.4% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 39.6% Medicare, 2.9% Medicaid, and 57.5% commercial.
Thesis: Turnaround. Our ML models identify $987K in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from 2.4% to 9.8% (+738bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $13.4M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $322K |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | 2.4% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 72.3% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $669K |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 99.2% |
| Distress Probability ML | 51.4% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
LA has 212 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -3.5%. The target's margin of 2.4% places it above the state median. Among 126 size-comparable peers (10-40 beds), the median margin is -2.9%. The target performs in line with or above peers.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (10-40), prioritizing same-state peers. 126 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAGE REHAB HOSPITAL (Target) | LA | 20 | $13.4M | 2.4% |
| SPECIALISTS HOSPITAL OF SHREVE | LA | 15 | $79.1M | 21.3% |
| OCHSNER BAYOU LLC | LA | 25 | $76.5M | -0.9% |
| OUR LADY OF THE ANGELS HOSPITA | LA | 36 | $76.2M | -4.9% |
| CENTRAL LOUISIANA SURGICAL HOS | LA | 24 | $69.1M | 7.7% |
| ST. CHARLES PARISH HOSPITAL | LA | 27 | $64.0M | -5.1% |
| AVALA | LA | 21 | $64.0M | 7.4% |
| BYRD REGIONAL HOSPITAL | LA | 39 | $61.1M | 2.5% |
| THE SPINE HOSPITAL OF LOUISIAN | LA | 23 | $57.4M | 35.4% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $987K (738bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $281K | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $268K | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $266K | +199bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $163K | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $10K | +7bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $322K |
| + RCM Uplift | +$987K |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $1.3M |
| Current Margin | 2.4% |
| Pro Forma Margin | 9.8% |
| WC Released (1x) | $513K |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $496K | $12.0M | 24.19x | 89.1% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $496K | $13.4M | 26.94x | 93.2% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $446K | $16.8M | 37.59x | 106.5% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $446K | $18.4M | 41.30x | 110.5% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $545K | $6.9M | 12.65x | 66.1% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $545K | $7.8M | 14.24x | 70.1% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| High | Elevated distress probability | Model estimates 51.4% probability of financial distress. Mitigant: distressed entry pricing (7-9x) compensates for risk |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 126 hospitals with 10-40 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=127)
- Comp margins: P25=-15.8% / P50=-2.9% / P75=7.2%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.