EAST CARROLL PARISH HOSPITAL
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
EAST CARROLL PARISH HOSPITAL is a 23-bed rural/critical access in EAST CARROLL PARISH, LA with $14.6M in net patient revenue and a 5.0% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 62.4% Medicare, 3.1% Medicaid, and 34.5% commercial.
Thesis: Turnaround. Our ML models identify $1.1M in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from 5.0% to 12.4% (+736bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $14.6M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $736K |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | 5.0% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 10.3% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $634K |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 73.3% |
| Distress Probability ML | 63.6% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
LA has 212 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -3.5%. The target's margin of 5.0% places it above the state median. Among 125 size-comparable peers (12-46 beds), the median margin is -3.1%. The target performs in line with or above peers.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (12-46), prioritizing same-state peers. 125 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EAST CARROLL PARISH HOSPITAL (Target) | LA | 23 | $14.6M | 5.0% |
| SPECIALISTS HOSPITAL OF SHREVE | LA | 15 | $79.1M | 21.3% |
| OCHSNER BAYOU LLC | LA | 25 | $76.5M | -0.9% |
| OUR LADY OF THE ANGELS HOSPITA | LA | 36 | $76.2M | -4.9% |
| CENTRAL LOUISIANA SURGICAL HOS | LA | 24 | $69.1M | 7.7% |
| ABBEVILLE GENERAL HOSPITAL | LA | 44 | $68.5M | 3.4% |
| ST. CHARLES PARISH HOSPITAL | LA | 27 | $64.0M | -5.1% |
| AVALA | LA | 21 | $64.0M | 7.4% |
| BYRD REGIONAL HOSPITAL | LA | 39 | $61.1M | 2.5% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $1.1M (736bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $306K | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $292K | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $289K | +198bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $177K | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $10K | +7bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $736K |
| + RCM Uplift | +$1.1M |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $1.8M |
| Current Margin | 5.0% |
| Pro Forma Margin | 12.4% |
| WC Released (1x) | $559K |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $1.1M | $15.6M | 13.77x | 69.0% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $1.1M | $17.5M | 15.47x | 72.9% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $1.0M | $21.4M | 21.03x | 83.9% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $1.0M | $23.7M | 23.23x | 87.6% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $1.2M | $9.9M | 7.91x | 51.2% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $1.2M | $11.2M | 9.03x | 55.3% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| Medium | Heavy Medicare dependence | Medicare comprises 62.4% of days; rate updates may lag inflation. Mitigant: CDI/CMI lever directly increases Medicare reimbursement |
| Medium | Low occupancy | At 10.3%, fixed costs are spread over fewer patient days. Mitigant: volume growth is an additional upside lever not modeled in base case |
| High | Elevated distress probability | Model estimates 63.6% probability of financial distress. Mitigant: distressed entry pricing (7-9x) compensates for risk |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 125 hospitals with 12-46 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=126)
- Comp margins: P25=-15.0% / P50=-3.1% / P75=6.2%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.