LAKE CUMBERLAND REGIONAL HOSP
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
LAKE CUMBERLAND REGIONAL HOSP is a 179-bed suburban community hospital in PULASKI, KY with $278.7M in net patient revenue and a 5.6% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 25.5% Medicare, 1.6% Medicaid, and 72.9% commercial.
Thesis: Turnaround. Our ML models identify $20.5M in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from 5.6% to 13.0% (+736bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $278.7M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $15.6M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | 5.6% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 64.6% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $1.6M |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 16.6% |
| Distress Probability ML | 42.3% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
KY has 114 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -0.6%. The target's margin of 5.6% places it above the state median. Among 35 size-comparable peers (90-358 beds), the median margin is -1.5%. The target performs in line with or above peers.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (90-358), prioritizing same-state peers. 35 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAKE CUMBERLAND REGIONAL HOSP (Target) | KY | 179 | $278.7M | 5.6% |
| UNIVERSITY OF LOUISVILLE HOSPI | KY | 333 | $806.1M | -6.9% |
| OWENSBORO HEALTH REGIONAL HOSP | KY | 302 | $678.6M | 11.1% |
| PIKEVILLE MEDICAL CENTER | KY | 328 | $555.1M | -16.6% |
| BAPTIST HEALTH HARDIN | KY | 259 | $459.5M | -1.5% |
| THE MEDICAL CENTER | KY | 310 | $451.0M | 4.2% |
| BAPTIST HEALTH PADUCAH | KY | 190 | $391.7M | -0.5% |
| SAINT JOSEPH HOSPITAL | KY | 252 | $322.8M | -17.3% |
| MERCY HEALTH LOURDES HOSPITAL | KY | 178 | $288.1M | 7.7% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $20.5M (736bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $5.9M | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $5.6M | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $5.5M | +198bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $3.4M | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $178K | +6bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $15.6M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$20.5M |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $36.1M |
| Current Margin | 5.6% |
| Pro Forma Margin | 13.0% |
| WC Released (1x) | $10.7M |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $24.0M | $307.9M | 12.85x | 66.6% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $24.0M | $346.4M | 14.46x | 70.6% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $21.6M | $421.9M | 19.56x | 81.2% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $21.6M | $466.6M | 21.64x | 84.9% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $26.4M | $197.5M | 7.49x | 49.6% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $26.4M | $225.8M | 8.57x | 53.7% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| Low | Low net-to-gross ratio | Large contractual allowances suggest pricing discipline issues. Mitigant: payer renegotiation is an additional upside lever |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 35 hospitals with 90-358 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=36)
- Comp margins: P25=-10.1% / P50=-1.5% / P75=7.0%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.