GOOD SHEPHERD HOSPITAL
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
GOOD SHEPHERD HOSPITAL is a 176-bed suburban community hospital in LAKE, IL with $375.2M in net patient revenue and a 20.0% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 42.9% Medicare, 1.1% Medicaid, and 56.0% commercial.
Thesis: Turnaround. Our ML models identify $27.6M in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from 20.0% to 27.4% (+736bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $375.2M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $75.1M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | 20.0% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 59.8% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $2.1M |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 33.8% |
| Distress Probability ML | 45.1% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
IL has 208 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -5.3%. The target's margin of 20.0% places it above the state median. Among 99 size-comparable peers (88-352 beds), the median margin is -7.7%. The target performs in line with or above peers.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (88-352), prioritizing same-state peers. 99 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOD SHEPHERD HOSPITAL (Target) | IL | 176 | $375.2M | 20.0% |
| CENTRAL DUPAGE HOSPITAL | IL | 347 | $1.30B | 16.4% |
| SWEDISHAMERICAN HOSPITAL | IL | 324 | $752.0M | -2.8% |
| ADVOCATE NORTHSIDE HEALTH SYST | IL | 233 | $713.2M | 18.5% |
| NORTHERN ILLINOIS MEDICAL CENT | IL | 259 | $640.9M | -12.5% |
| BLESSING HOSPITAL | IL | 309 | $522.4M | -13.2% |
| NORTHWESTERN LAKE FOREST HOSPI | IL | 124 | $494.3M | -13.8% |
| SILVER CROSS HOSPITAL | IL | 296 | $479.7M | -1.1% |
| ALEXIAN BROTHERS MEDICAL CENTE | IL | 282 | $474.5M | -4.7% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $27.6M (736bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $7.9M | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $7.5M | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $7.4M | +198bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $4.6M | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $240K | +6bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $75.1M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$27.6M |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $102.7M |
| Current Margin | 20.0% |
| Pro Forma Margin | 27.4% |
| WC Released (1x) | $14.4M |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $115.5M | $771.3M | 6.68x | 46.2% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $115.5M | $885.9M | 7.67x | 50.3% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $103.9M | $1.01B | 9.76x | 57.7% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $103.9M | $1.14B | 10.95x | 61.4% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $127.0M | $595.7M | 4.69x | 36.2% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $127.0M | $696.5M | 5.48x | 40.5% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| Medium | Standard execution risk | RCM improvement requires management buy-in and 12-18 month implementation timeline |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 99 hospitals with 88-352 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=100)
- Comp margins: P25=-20.8% / P50=-7.7% / P75=3.1%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.