SAINT ANTHONY MEDICAL CENTER
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
SAINT ANTHONY MEDICAL CENTER is a 241-bed suburban community hospital in WINNEBAGO, IL with $407.4M in net patient revenue and a 3.1% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 33.7% Medicare, 3.3% Medicaid, and 63.0% commercial.
Thesis: Undervalued. Our ML models identify $30.0M in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from 3.1% to 10.4% (+736bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $407.4M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $12.6M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | 3.1% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 69.6% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $1.7M |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 24.8% |
| Distress Probability ML | 42.9% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
IL has 208 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -5.3%. The target's margin of 3.1% places it above the state median. Among 87 size-comparable peers (120-482 beds), the median margin is -9.3%. The target performs in line with or above peers.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (120-482), prioritizing same-state peers. 87 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAINT ANTHONY MEDICAL CENTER (Target) | IL | 241 | $407.4M | 3.1% |
| CENTRAL DUPAGE HOSPITAL | IL | 347 | $1.30B | 16.4% |
| CARLE FOUNDATION HOSPITAL | IL | 433 | $1.22B | 11.8% |
| ANN & ROBERT H. LURIE CHILDREN | IL | 364 | $1.17B | -12.8% |
| BOARD OF TRUSTEES OF THE UNIVE | IL | 395 | $1.14B | -12.3% |
| JOHN H. STROGER JR. HOSP OF CO | IL | 429 | $945.3M | -22.4% |
| SWEDISHAMERICAN HOSPITAL | IL | 324 | $752.0M | -2.8% |
| SPRINGFIELD MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | IL | 389 | $732.9M | -14.5% |
| ADVOCATE NORTHSIDE HEALTH SYST | IL | 233 | $713.2M | 18.5% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $30.0M (736bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $8.6M | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $8.1M | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $8.1M | +198bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $5.0M | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $261K | +6bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $12.6M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$30.0M |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $42.6M |
| Current Margin | 3.1% |
| Pro Forma Margin | 10.4% |
| WC Released (1x) | $15.6M |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $19.3M | $382.8M | 19.79x | 81.7% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $19.3M | $427.4M | 22.09x | 85.7% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $17.4M | $532.6M | 30.59x | 98.2% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $17.4M | $586.2M | 33.67x | 102.0% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $21.3M | $226.6M | 10.65x | 60.5% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $21.3M | $256.2M | 12.04x | 64.5% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| Medium | Standard execution risk | RCM improvement requires management buy-in and 12-18 month implementation timeline |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 87 hospitals with 120-482 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=88)
- Comp margins: P25=-20.8% / P50=-9.3% / P75=0.8%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.