ST. LUKES JEROME LTD
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
ST. LUKES JEROME LTD is a 17-bed suburban community hospital in JEROME, ID with $20.0M in net patient revenue and a -2.2% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 46.9% Medicare, 19.3% Medicaid, and 33.9% commercial.
Thesis: Turnaround. Our ML models identify $1.5M in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from -2.2% to 5.2% (+736bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $20.0M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $-435K |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | -2.2% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 40.5% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $1.2M |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 60.2% |
| Distress Probability ML | 58.0% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
ID has 51 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -3.5%. The target's margin of -2.2% places it above the state median. Among 29 size-comparable peers (8-34 beds), the median margin is -5.4%. The target performs in line with or above peers.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (8-34), prioritizing same-state peers. 29 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ST. LUKES JEROME LTD (Target) | ID | 17 | $20.0M | -2.2% |
| BINGHAM MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | ID | 25 | $164.8M | -3.6% |
| NORTHWEST SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | ID | 32 | $120.3M | 3.7% |
| TREASURE VALLEY HOSPITAL | ID | 28 | $114.8M | 36.1% |
| ST. LUKES WOOD RIVER MEDICAL C | ID | 25 | $99.1M | 13.5% |
| GRITMAN MEDICAL CENTER | ID | 25 | $92.4M | -6.4% |
| BONNER GENERAL HOSPITAL | ID | 25 | $61.2M | -7.6% |
| NORTH CANYON MEDICAL CENTER | ID | 16 | $53.7M | 4.3% |
| CASSIA REGIONAL HOSPITAL | ID | 25 | $53.5M | -9.9% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $1.5M (736bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $419K | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $399K | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $395K | +198bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $243K | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $13K | +6bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $-435K |
| + RCM Uplift | +$1.5M |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $1.0M |
| Current Margin | -2.2% |
| Pro Forma Margin | 5.2% |
| WC Released (1x) | $765K |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $-670K | $11.8M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $-670K | $12.8M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $-603K | $17.4M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $-603K | $18.8M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $-737K | $4.7M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $-737K | $4.9M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| High | Negative operating margin | RCM uplift bridge shows clear path to profitability; working capital release provides near-term cash cushion |
| High | Elevated distress probability | Model estimates 58.0% probability of financial distress. Mitigant: distressed entry pricing (7-9x) compensates for risk |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 29 hospitals with 8-34 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=30)
- Comp margins: P25=-9.9% / P50=-5.4% / P75=-0.2%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.