OGLETHORPE OF ORLANDO INC.
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
OGLETHORPE OF ORLANDO INC. is a 64-bed community hospital in OSCEOLA, FL with $12.6M in net patient revenue and a 18.7% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 70.1% Medicare, 0.0% Medicaid, and 29.9% commercial.
Thesis: Turnaround. Our ML models identify $933K in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from 18.7% to 26.1% (+738bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $12.6M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $2.4M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | 18.7% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 74.7% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $198K |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 46.5% |
| Distress Probability ML | nan% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
FL has 261 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of 3.2%. The target's margin of 18.7% places it above the state median. Among 109 size-comparable peers (32-128 beds), the median margin is 4.8%. The target performs in line with or above peers.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (32-128), prioritizing same-state peers. 109 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGLETHORPE OF ORLANDO INC. (Target) | FL | 64 | $12.6M | 18.7% |
| WEST KENDALL BAPTIST HOSPITAL | FL | 127 | $361.6M | 18.5% |
| ADVENTHEALTH PALM COAST | FL | 99 | $285.7M | 8.1% |
| ASCENSION SACRED HEART BAY | FL | 126 | $192.1M | -6.7% |
| ASCENSION SACRED HEART EMERALD | FL | 80 | $187.9M | 16.1% |
| LAKEWOOD RANCH MEDICAL CENTER | FL | 120 | $171.1M | 10.4% |
| HCA FLORIDA LAKE CITY HOSPITAL | FL | 113 | $168.8M | 34.4% |
| SOUTH FLORIDA BAPTIST HOSPITAL | FL | 128 | $164.1M | 2.6% |
| VIERA HOSPITAL INC | FL | 84 | $162.9M | 16.9% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $933K (738bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $265K | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $253K | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $252K | +199bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $154K | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $10K | +8bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $2.4M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$933K |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $3.3M |
| Current Margin | 18.7% |
| Pro Forma Margin | 26.1% |
| WC Released (1x) | $485K |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $3.6M | $25.0M | 6.85x | 46.9% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $3.6M | $28.6M | 7.86x | 51.0% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $3.3M | $32.9M | 10.03x | 58.6% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $3.3M | $36.8M | 11.24x | 62.2% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $4.0M | $19.1M | 4.77x | 36.7% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $4.0M | $22.3M | 5.57x | 41.0% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| Medium | Heavy Medicare dependence | Medicare comprises 70.1% of days; rate updates may lag inflation. Mitigant: CDI/CMI lever directly increases Medicare reimbursement |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 109 hospitals with 32-128 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=110)
- Comp margins: P25=-9.7% / P50=4.8% / P75=12.7%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.