HCA FLORIDA KENDALL HOSPITAL
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
HCA FLORIDA KENDALL HOSPITAL is a 424-bed suburban community hospital in nan, FL with $541.2M in net patient revenue and a 35.2% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 11.1% Medicare, 5.3% Medicaid, and 83.6% commercial.
Thesis: Platform Growth. Our ML models identify $39.8M in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from 35.2% to 42.6% (+736bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $541.2M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $190.7M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | 35.2% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 66.2% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $1.3M |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 10.2% |
| Distress Probability ML | 42.8% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
FL has 261 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of 3.2%. The target's margin of 35.2% places it above the state median. Among 86 size-comparable peers (212-848 beds), the median margin is 4.1%. The target performs in line with or above peers.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (212-848), prioritizing same-state peers. 86 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HCA FLORIDA KENDALL HOSPITAL (Target) | FL | 424 | $541.2M | 35.2% |
| UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI HOSP & CLI | FL | 532 | $2.36B | 0.9% |
| MOFFITT CANCER CENTER | FL | 218 | $1.91B | 16.0% |
| MEMORIAL REGIONAL HOSPITAL | FL | 838 | $1.45B | -20.7% |
| LEE MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | FL | 748 | $1.28B | 17.4% |
| SARASOTA MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | FL | 787 | $1.10B | 8.1% |
| MAYO CLINIC FLORIDA | FL | 304 | $1.09B | 21.6% |
| ASCENSION SACRED HEART PENSACO | FL | 559 | $1.04B | -10.0% |
| LAKELAND REGIONAL MED CTR | FL | 764 | $928.0M | 4.2% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $39.8M (736bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $11.4M | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $10.8M | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $10.7M | +198bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $6.6M | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $346K | +6bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $190.7M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$39.8M |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $230.5M |
| Current Margin | 35.2% |
| Pro Forma Margin | 42.6% |
| WC Released (1x) | $20.8M |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $293.4M | $1.66B | 5.65x | 41.4% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $293.4M | $1.92B | 6.53x | 45.6% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $264.1M | $2.14B | 8.12x | 52.0% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $264.1M | $2.42B | 9.15x | 55.7% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $322.7M | $1.36B | 4.22x | 33.4% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $322.7M | $1.60B | 4.97x | 37.8% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| Low | Low net-to-gross ratio | Large contractual allowances suggest pricing discipline issues. Mitigant: payer renegotiation is an additional upside lever |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 86 hospitals with 212-848 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=87)
- Comp margins: P25=-5.0% / P50=4.1% / P75=16.0%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.