SARASOTA MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
SARASOTA MEMORIAL HOSPITAL is a 787-bed large academic medical center in SARASOTA, FL with $1.10B in net patient revenue and a 8.1% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 37.5% Medicare, 5.3% Medicaid, and 57.2% commercial.
Thesis: Platform Growth. Our ML models identify $80.8M in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from 8.1% to 15.5% (+736bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $1.10B |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $89.1M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | 8.1% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 70.1% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $1.4M |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 19.0% |
| Distress Probability ML | 45.0% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
FL has 261 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of 3.2%. The target's margin of 8.1% places it above the state median. Among 33 size-comparable peers (394-1574 beds), the median margin is 4.1%. The target performs in line with or above peers.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (394-1574), prioritizing same-state peers. 33 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SARASOTA MEMORIAL HOSPITAL (Target) | FL | 787 | $1.10B | 8.1% |
| ORLANDO HEALTH | FL | 1507 | $2.38B | -20.2% |
| UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI HOSP & CLI | FL | 532 | $2.36B | 0.9% |
| UF HEALTH SHANDS | FL | 994 | $2.24B | 10.4% |
| BAPTIST MEDICAL CENTER | FL | 980 | $1.78B | 0.9% |
| TAMPA GENERAL HOSPITAL | FL | 898 | $1.73B | -9.3% |
| BAPTIST HOSPITAL | FL | 948 | $1.71B | 10.8% |
| ST. JOSEPHS HOSPITAL | FL | 1336 | $1.56B | 8.3% |
| MEMORIAL REGIONAL HOSPITAL | FL | 838 | $1.45B | -20.7% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $80.8M (736bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $23.0M | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $21.9M | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $21.7M | +198bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $13.4M | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $702K | +6bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $89.1M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$80.8M |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $169.9M |
| Current Margin | 8.1% |
| Pro Forma Margin | 15.5% |
| WC Released (1x) | $42.1M |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $137.1M | $1.40B | 10.18x | 59.1% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $137.1M | $1.58B | 11.52x | 63.0% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $123.4M | $1.89B | 15.32x | 72.6% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $123.4M | $2.10B | 17.01x | 76.2% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $150.9M | $947.4M | 6.28x | 44.4% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $150.9M | $1.09B | 7.23x | 48.5% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| Low | Low net-to-gross ratio | Large contractual allowances suggest pricing discipline issues. Mitigant: payer renegotiation is an additional upside lever |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 33 hospitals with 394-1574 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=34)
- Comp margins: P25=-7.1% / P50=4.1% / P75=12.2%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.