ST. MARYS HOSPITAL
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
ST. MARYS HOSPITAL is a 163-bed safety-net/medicaid heavy in NEW HAVEN, CT with $311.2M in net patient revenue and a -2.5% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 26.9% Medicare, 29.8% Medicaid, and 43.3% commercial.
Thesis: Undervalued. Our ML models identify $22.9M in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from -2.5% to 4.9% (+736bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $311.2M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $-7.7M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | -2.5% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 56.7% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $1.9M |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 30.0% |
| Distress Probability ML | 52.1% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
CT has 39 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -6.8%. The target's margin of -2.5% places it above the state median. Among 20 size-comparable peers (82-326 beds), the median margin is -6.7%. The target performs in line with or above peers.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (82-326), prioritizing same-state peers. 20 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ST. MARYS HOSPITAL (Target) | CT | 163 | $311.2M | -2.5% |
| THE STAMFORD HOSPITAL | CT | 288 | $786.2M | -5.1% |
| JOHN DEMPSEY HOSPITAL | CT | 141 | $590.3M | -24.8% |
| THE HOSPITAL OF CENTRAL CONNEC | CT | 244 | $541.8M | -5.6% |
| GREENWICH HOSPITAL | CT | 186 | $498.0M | -5.9% |
| ST. VINCENTS MEDICAL CENTER | CT | 211 | $481.3M | -12.7% |
| MIDDLESEX HOSPITAL | CT | 186 | $449.7M | -1.3% |
| LAWRENCE & MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | CT | 236 | $422.7M | -6.7% |
| CONNECTICUT CHILDRENS MEDICAL | CT | 187 | $416.8M | -6.7% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $22.9M (736bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $6.5M | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $6.2M | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $6.2M | +198bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $3.8M | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $199K | +6bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $-7.7M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$22.9M |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $15.2M |
| Current Margin | -2.5% |
| Pro Forma Margin | 4.9% |
| WC Released (1x) | $11.9M |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $-11.8M | $178.6M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $-11.8M | $192.6M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $-10.6M | $264.4M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $-10.6M | $285.3M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $-13.0M | $67.9M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $-13.0M | $70.4M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| High | Negative operating margin | RCM uplift bridge shows clear path to profitability; working capital release provides near-term cash cushion |
| Medium | Elevated Medicaid exposure (29.8%) | Medicaid reimburses below cost in most states. Mitigant: denial reduction lever has highest impact on Medicaid claims |
| High | Elevated distress probability | Model estimates 52.1% probability of financial distress. Mitigant: distressed entry pricing (7-9x) compensates for risk |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 20 hospitals with 82-326 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=21)
- Comp margins: P25=-12.4% / P50=-6.7% / P75=-5.5%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.