UCHEALTH LONGS PEAK HOSPITAL
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
UCHEALTH LONGS PEAK HOSPITAL is a 83-bed suburban community hospital in BOULDER, CO with $181.8M in net patient revenue and a -1.7% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 24.0% Medicare, 20.4% Medicaid, and 55.7% commercial.
Thesis: Turnaround. Our ML models identify $13.4M in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from -1.7% to 5.7% (+736bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $181.8M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $-3.1M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | -1.7% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 78.4% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $2.2M |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 17.4% |
| Distress Probability ML | 42.6% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
CO has 108 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -3.6%. The target's margin of -1.7% places it above the state median. Among 36 size-comparable peers (42-166 beds), the median margin is -3.6%. The target performs in line with or above peers.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (42-166), prioritizing same-state peers. 36 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCHEALTH LONGS PEAK HOSPITAL (Target) | CO | 83 | $181.8M | -1.7% |
| BOULDER COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | CO | 139 | $418.3M | -1.6% |
| CENTURA PARKER ADVENTIST HOSPI | CO | 162 | $351.5M | 12.9% |
| CENTURA MERCY HOSPITAL | CO | 73 | $270.4M | 10.0% |
| CENTURA ST. ANTHONY NORTH HOSP | CO | 118 | $268.3M | 10.9% |
| UCHEALTH HIGHLANDS RANCH HOSPI | CO | 93 | $235.2M | -4.6% |
| CHCO - COLORADO SPRINGS | CO | 124 | $220.2M | -9.2% |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | CO | 44 | $216.5M | -5.5% |
| VAIL VALLEY MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 54 | $214.4M | -28.1% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $13.4M (736bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $3.8M | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $3.6M | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $3.6M | +198bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $2.2M | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $116K | +6bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $-3.1M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$13.4M |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $10.3M |
| Current Margin | -1.7% |
| Pro Forma Margin | 5.7% |
| WC Released (1x) | $7.0M |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $-4.8M | $113.3M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $-4.8M | $123.1M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $-4.3M | $165.7M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $-4.3M | $179.4M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $-5.3M | $47.9M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $-5.3M | $51.0M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| High | Negative operating margin | RCM uplift bridge shows clear path to profitability; working capital release provides near-term cash cushion |
| Low | Low net-to-gross ratio | Large contractual allowances suggest pricing discipline issues. Mitigant: payer renegotiation is an additional upside lever |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 36 hospitals with 42-166 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=37)
- Comp margins: P25=-9.9% / P50=-3.6% / P75=4.6%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.