CHANGEPOINT PSYCHIARIC HOSPITAL
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
CHANGEPOINT PSYCHIARIC HOSPITAL is a 16-bed safety-net/medicaid heavy in NAVAJO, AZ with $5.7M in net patient revenue and a -23.0% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 1.2% Medicare, 81.8% Medicaid, and 16.9% commercial.
Thesis: Turnaround. Our ML models identify $432K in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from -23.0% to -15.5% (+755bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $5.7M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $-1.3M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | -23.0% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 94.6% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $357K |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 88.8% |
| Distress Probability ML | 63.2% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
AZ has 124 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -0.8%. The target's margin of -23.0% places it below the state median. Among 29 size-comparable peers (8-32 beds), the median margin is -3.1%. The target's below-peer margin suggests operational improvement opportunity.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (8-32), prioritizing same-state peers. 29 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHANGEPOINT PSYCHIARIC HOSPITA (Target) | AZ | 16 | $5.7M | -23.0% |
| ARIZONA GENERAL HOSPITAL | AZ | 16 | $97.1M | 10.4% |
| THE CORE INSTITUTE SPECIALTY H | AZ | 28 | $91.2M | 9.2% |
| MT. GRAHAM REGIONAL MEDICAL CE | AZ | 25 | $75.2M | -2.8% |
| COBRE VALLEY REG. MEDICAL CENT | AZ | 25 | $74.9M | -10.3% |
| COPPER QUEEN COMM. HOSP. | AZ | 14 | $63.5M | 6.6% |
| MT. GRAHAM REGIONAL MEDICAL CE | AZ | 25 | $49.4M | -6.8% |
| BANNER PAYSON MEDICAL CENTER | AZ | 25 | $49.3M | 0.0% |
| AZ SPINE & JOINT HOSPITAL | AZ | 23 | $45.1M | 19.4% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $432K (755bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $120K | +210bp | 18mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $118K | +207bp | 12mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $114K | +200bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $70K | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $10K | +17bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $-1.3M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$432K |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $-884K |
| Current Margin | -23.0% |
| Pro Forma Margin | -15.5% |
| WC Released (1x) | $219K |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $-2.0M | $-4.4M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $-2.0M | $-5.5M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $-1.8M | $-4.7M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $-1.8M | $-5.7M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $-2.2M | $-5.9M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $-2.2M | $-7.2M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| High | Negative operating margin | RCM uplift bridge shows clear path to profitability; working capital release provides near-term cash cushion |
| Medium | Elevated Medicaid exposure (81.8%) | Medicaid reimburses below cost in most states. Mitigant: denial reduction lever has highest impact on Medicaid claims |
| High | Elevated distress probability | Model estimates 63.2% probability of financial distress. Mitigant: distressed entry pricing (7-9x) compensates for risk |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 29 hospitals with 8-32 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=31)
- Comp margins: P25=-10.1% / P50=-3.1% / P75=7.9%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.