Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 71% of modeled bridge. Strengths: Occupancy Rate, Commercial Payer %. Risks: Revenue per Bed, Net-to-Gross Ratio. Risk-adjusted uplift: $0.6M (vs $0.9M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $341K | $341K | $0 | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $328K | $9K | $337K | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $52K | $155K | $207K | $653K | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $11K | $11K | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 66.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $85K | $170K | $256K | $341K | $341K | $341K | $341K |
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $84K | $169K | $253K | $337K | $337K | $337K | $337K |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $69K | $138K | $207K | $207K | $207K | $207K | $207K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $5K | $11K | $11K | $11K | $11K | $11K | $11K |
| Cumulative | $0 | $244K | $488K | $727K | $896K | $896K | $896K | $896K |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $896K is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | 55% / 9.0x | 60% / 10.4x | 64% / 11.7x | 65% / 12.4x | 67% / 13.1x |
| 9.0x | 50% / 7.7x | 55% / 8.9x | 59% / 10.1x | 61% / 10.7x | 62% / 11.3x |
| 10.0x | 46% / 6.6x | 50% / 7.7x | 54% / 8.7x | 56% / 9.3x | 58% / 9.8x |
| 11.0x | 41% / 5.7x | 46% / 6.7x | 50% / 7.7x | 52% / 8.1x | 54% / 8.6x |
| 12.0x | 38% / 4.9x | 42% / 5.8x | 46% / 6.7x | 48% / 7.2x | 50% / 7.7x |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline 14% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 8.5x to 5.6x, adding 2.9 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $1.7M | — | $1.7M | 10.2% |
| Year 1 | $1.8M | +$597K | $2.4M | 14.0% |
| Year 2 | $1.8M | +$896K | $2.7M | 16.1% |
| Year 3 | $1.9M | +$896K | $2.8M | 16.4% |
| Year 4 | $2.0M | +$896K | $2.8M | 16.7% |
| Year 5 | $2.0M | +$896K | $2.9M | 17.1% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $170K | $256K | $341K | $409K |
| Denial Rate Reductio | $169K | $253K | $337K | $405K |
| A/R Days Reduction | $104K | $155K | $207K | $249K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $5K | $8K | $11K | $13K |
| Total | $448K | $672K | $896K | $1.1M |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 16 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | 10.2% | -14.5% | -5.0% | 0.8% | P88 |
| Net-to-Gross | 74.8% | 50.1% | 58.5% | 66.5% | P81 |
| Occupancy | 67.7% | 17.8% | 30.8% | 43.9% | P88 |
| Rev/Bed | $426K | $912K | $1.6M | $3.0M | P6 |
| Exp/Bed | $383K | $1.1M | $1.6M | $3.4M | P0 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.