Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 71% of modeled bridge. Strengths: Occupancy Rate, Revenue per Bed. Risks: Bed Count. Risk-adjusted uplift: $89.0M (vs $125.4M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $47.7M | $47.7M | $0 | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $45.9M | $1.3M | $47.2M | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $7.3M | $21.7M | $29.0M | $91.4M | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $1.5M | $1.5M | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 32.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $11.9M | $23.8M | $35.8M | $47.7M | $47.7M | $47.7M | $47.7M |
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $11.8M | $23.6M | $35.4M | $47.2M | $47.2M | $47.2M | $47.2M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $9.7M | $19.3M | $29.0M | $29.0M | $29.0M | $29.0M | $29.0M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $763K | $1.5M | $1.5M | $1.5M | $1.5M | $1.5M | $1.5M |
| Cumulative | $0 | $34.2M | $68.3M | $101.7M | $125.4M | $125.4M | $125.4M | $125.4M |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $125.4M is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | 87% / 22.6x | 91% / 25.4x | 95% / 28.3x | 97% / 29.7x | 99% / 31.2x |
| 9.0x | 82% / 19.7x | 86% / 22.2x | 90% / 24.8x | 92% / 26.1x | 94% / 27.4x |
| 10.0x | 77% / 17.4x | 82% / 19.7x | 86% / 22.0x | 87% / 23.1x | 89% / 24.3x |
| 11.0x | 73% / 15.5x | 77% / 17.6x | 82% / 19.7x | 83% / 20.7x | 85% / 21.8x |
| 12.0x | 69% / 14.0x | 74% / 15.9x | 78% / 17.8x | 80% / 18.7x | 82% / 19.7x |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline 61% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 8.5x to 2.5x, adding 6.0 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $52.9M | — | $52.9M | 2.2% |
| Year 1 | $54.5M | +$83.6M | $138.1M | 5.8% |
| Year 2 | $56.1M | +$125.4M | $181.5M | 7.6% |
| Year 3 | $57.8M | +$125.4M | $183.2M | 7.7% |
| Year 4 | $59.5M | +$125.4M | $185.0M | 7.8% |
| Year 5 | $61.3M | +$125.4M | $186.7M | 7.8% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $23.8M | $35.8M | $47.7M | $57.2M |
| Denial Rate Reductio | $23.6M | $35.4M | $47.2M | $56.6M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $14.5M | $21.8M | $29.0M | $34.8M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $763K | $1.1M | $1.5M | $1.8M |
| Total | $62.7M | $94.1M | $125.4M | $150.5M |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 490 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | 2.2% | -15.3% | -4.8% | 4.0% | P71 |
| Net-to-Gross | 31.4% | 20.5% | 26.6% | 32.0% | P72 |
| Occupancy | 83.8% | 66.2% | 75.1% | 82.8% | P78 |
| Rev/Bed | $3.3M | $1.3M | $1.8M | $2.4M | P91 |
| Exp/Bed | $3.2M | $1.3M | $1.8M | $2.6M | P86 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.