Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 69% of modeled bridge. Strengths: Occupancy Rate, Payer Diversity. Risks: Revenue per Bed, Commercial Payer %. Risk-adjusted uplift: $0.7M (vs $1.0M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $381K | $381K | $0 | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $367K | $10K | $377K | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $58K | $173K | $232K | $730K | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $12K | $12K | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 34.4% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $95K | $190K | $286K | $381K | $381K | $381K | $381K |
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $94K | $188K | $283K | $377K | $377K | $377K | $377K |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $77K | $154K | $232K | $232K | $232K | $232K | $232K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $6K | $12K | $12K | $12K | $12K | $12K | $12K |
| Cumulative | $0 | $273K | $546K | $812K | $1.0M | $1.0M | $1.0M | $1.0M |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $1.0M is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x |
| 9.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x |
| 10.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x |
| 11.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x |
| 12.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline 137% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 99.0x to -2.4x, adding 101.4 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $-219K | — | $-219K | -1.2% |
| Year 1 | $-226K | +$668K | $442K | 2.3% |
| Year 2 | $-233K | +$1.0M | $769K | 4.0% |
| Year 3 | $-240K | +$1.0M | $762K | 4.0% |
| Year 4 | $-247K | +$1.0M | $755K | 4.0% |
| Year 5 | $-254K | +$1.0M | $747K | 3.9% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $190K | $286K | $381K | $457K |
| Denial Rate Reductio | $188K | $283K | $377K | $452K |
| A/R Days Reduction | $116K | $174K | $232K | $278K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $6K | $9K | $12K | $15K |
| Total | $501K | $751K | $1.0M | $1.2M |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 54 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | -1.2% | -6.0% | 6.7% | 15.1% | P37 |
| Net-to-Gross | 37.0% | 21.1% | 26.7% | 34.3% | P76 |
| Occupancy | 66.6% | 43.8% | 64.6% | 81.0% | P54 |
| Rev/Bed | $190K | $431K | $1.1M | $1.9M | P9 |
| Exp/Bed | $193K | $456K | $1.0M | $1.8M | P0 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.