ML Analysis — VIRGINIA BEACH PSYCHIATRIC CENTER
CCN 494025 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
46
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside17/25
Market Position10/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-2.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -1.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-30.5%, 26.1%]. P56 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 190397.060 | -0.1939 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 192590.800 | +0.1804 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.044 | +0.0666 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.340 | -0.0399 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 126773.144 | -0.0248 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 46%Turnaround possible (46%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$1.0M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
4.2%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
VA distress rate: 29.6%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.666 | -0.131 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.080 | -0.042 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 190397.060 | +0.082 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 100.000 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.370 | +0.000 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.0M
Current margin: -1.1%
Projected margin: 4.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 53
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.666 | 0.819 | 15.3% | $1.0M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |