Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 77% of modeled bridge. Strengths: Occupancy Rate, Bed Count. Risks: Commercial Payer %. Risk-adjusted uplift: $1.7M (vs $2.2M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $825K | $825K | $0 | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $794K | $23K | $817K | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $127K | $376K | $502K | $1.6M | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $26K | $26K | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 42.4% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $206K | $413K | $619K | $825K | $825K | $825K | $825K |
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $204K | $409K | $613K | $817K | $817K | $817K | $817K |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $167K | $335K | $502K | $502K | $502K | $502K | $502K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $13K | $26K | $26K | $26K | $26K | $26K | $26K |
| Cumulative | $0 | $591K | $1.2M | $1.8M | $2.2M | $2.2M | $2.2M | $2.2M |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $2.2M is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | 55% / 9.1x | 60% / 10.4x | 64% / 11.8x | 66% / 12.5x | 67% / 13.2x |
| 9.0x | 50% / 7.7x | 55% / 8.9x | 59% / 10.1x | 61% / 10.7x | 63% / 11.3x |
| 10.0x | 46% / 6.6x | 50% / 7.7x | 54% / 8.8x | 56% / 9.3x | 58% / 9.9x |
| 11.0x | 42% / 5.7x | 46% / 6.7x | 50% / 7.7x | 52% / 8.2x | 54% / 8.7x |
| 12.0x | 38% / 5.0x | 42% / 5.9x | 47% / 6.8x | 49% / 7.2x | 50% / 7.7x |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline 15% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 8.5x to 5.6x, adding 2.9 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $4.1M | — | $4.1M | 10.0% |
| Year 1 | $4.3M | +$1.4M | $5.7M | 13.9% |
| Year 2 | $4.4M | +$2.2M | $6.6M | 15.9% |
| Year 3 | $4.5M | +$2.2M | $6.7M | 16.2% |
| Year 4 | $4.7M | +$2.2M | $6.8M | 16.6% |
| Year 5 | $4.8M | +$2.2M | $7.0M | 16.9% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $413K | $619K | $825K | $991K |
| Denial Rate Reductio | $409K | $613K | $817K | $981K |
| A/R Days Reduction | $251K | $377K | $502K | $603K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $13K | $20K | $26K | $32K |
| Total | $1.1M | $1.6M | $2.2M | $2.6M |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 66 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | 10.0% | -13.5% | -0.6% | 9.1% | P78 |
| Net-to-Gross | 29.3% | 19.9% | 29.1% | 42.4% | P51 |
| Occupancy | 93.9% | 23.7% | 42.1% | 68.4% | P98 |
| Rev/Bed | $1.4M | $400K | $549K | $986K | P86 |
| Exp/Bed | $1.2M | $352K | $573K | $1.0M | P83 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.