ML Analysis — FORT LOUDOUN MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 440110 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside8/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
3.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 10.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-24.8%, 31.9%]. P71 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 1237491.700 | +0.0517 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0291 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1375728.367 | -0.0284 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.940 | +0.0235 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.401 | -0.0226 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$642K
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
11.6%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
TN distress rate: 43.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.939 | -0.385 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.266 | -0.010 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.293 | -0.034 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 30.000 | -0.016 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1375728.367 | +0.012 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $642K
Current margin: 10.1%
Projected margin: 11.6%
Grade: D
Comps: 65
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.293 | 0.426 | 13.3% | $642K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |