Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 65% of modeled bridge. Strengths: Bed Count, Net-to-Gross Ratio. Risks: Occupancy Rate, Revenue per Bed. Risk-adjusted uplift: $0.5M (vs $0.8M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $305K | $305K | $0 | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $294K | $8K | $302K | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $47K | $139K | $186K | $586K | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $10K | $10K | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 42.4% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $76K | $153K | $229K | $305K | $305K | $305K | $305K |
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $76K | $151K | $227K | $302K | $302K | $302K | $302K |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $62K | $124K | $186K | $186K | $186K | $186K | $186K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $5K | $10K | $10K | $10K | $10K | $10K | $10K |
| Cumulative | $0 | $219K | $438K | $652K | $804K | $804K | $804K | $804K |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $804K is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | 91% / 25.6x | 96% / 28.9x | 100% / 32.1x | 102% / 33.7x | 104% / 35.3x |
| 9.0x | 86% / 22.4x | 91% / 25.3x | 95% / 28.1x | 97% / 29.6x | 99% / 31.0x |
| 10.0x | 82% / 19.9x | 86% / 22.4x | 90% / 25.0x | 92% / 26.3x | 94% / 27.6x |
| 11.0x | 78% / 17.8x | 82% / 20.1x | 86% / 22.4x | 88% / 23.6x | 90% / 24.8x |
| 12.0x | 74% / 16.0x | 79% / 18.1x | 83% / 20.3x | 84% / 21.4x | 86% / 22.4x |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline 66% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 8.5x to 2.2x, adding 6.2 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $288K | — | $288K | 1.9% |
| Year 1 | $296K | +$536K | $832K | 5.4% |
| Year 2 | $305K | +$804K | $1.1M | 7.3% |
| Year 3 | $315K | +$804K | $1.1M | 7.3% |
| Year 4 | $324K | +$804K | $1.1M | 7.4% |
| Year 5 | $334K | +$804K | $1.1M | 7.4% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $153K | $229K | $305K | $367K |
| Denial Rate Reductio | $151K | $227K | $302K | $363K |
| A/R Days Reduction | $93K | $139K | $186K | $223K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $5K | $7K | $10K | $12K |
| Total | $402K | $603K | $804K | $964K |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 91 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | 1.9% | -16.4% | 0.4% | 8.5% | P54 |
| Net-to-Gross | 14.2% | 18.5% | 30.7% | 42.4% | P12 |
| Occupancy | 42.5% | 31.9% | 52.8% | 72.4% | P38 |
| Rev/Bed | $305K | $414K | $755K | $1.5M | P11 |
| Exp/Bed | $300K | $400K | $871K | $1.5M | P11 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.