ML Analysis — SSH - ERIE
CCN 392037 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
37
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position6/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency1/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-8.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 1.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.0%, 19.6%]. P40 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 305477.160 | -0.1778 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 299720.580 | +0.1672 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.094 | +0.0309 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.142 | -0.0254 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 129689.701 | -0.0247 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
nan%
Distress Risk
$3.6M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
25.4%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
PA distress rate: 48.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.425 | +0.093 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.340 | +0.002 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.142 | -0.101 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 305477.160 | +0.075 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 50.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.6M
Current margin: 1.9%
Projected margin: 25.4%
Grade: A
Comps: 90
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.425 | 0.724 | 29.9% | $2.0M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.660 | 0.735 | 7.4% | $1.1M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.142 | 0.428 | 28.5% | $510K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |