Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 74% of modeled bridge. Strengths: Occupancy Rate, Bed Count. Risks: Revenue per Bed. Risk-adjusted uplift: $0.9M (vs $1.2M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $464K | $464K | $0 | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $447K | $13K | $460K | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $71K | $211K | $282K | $890K | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $15K | $15K | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 66.9% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $116K | $232K | $348K | $464K | $464K | $464K | $464K |
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $115K | $230K | $345K | $460K | $460K | $460K | $460K |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $94K | $188K | $282K | $282K | $282K | $282K | $282K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $7K | $15K | $15K | $15K | $15K | $15K | $15K |
| Cumulative | $0 | $333K | $665K | $990K | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.2M |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $1.2M is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | 47% / 6.9x | 52% / 8.0x | 56% / 9.2x | 58% / 9.7x | 59% / 10.3x |
| 9.0x | 42% / 5.8x | 47% / 6.8x | 51% / 7.8x | 53% / 8.3x | 54% / 8.8x |
| 10.0x | 37% / 4.9x | 42% / 5.8x | 46% / 6.7x | 48% / 7.1x | 50% / 7.6x |
| 11.0x | 33% / 4.1x | 38% / 5.0x | 42% / 5.8x | 44% / 6.2x | 46% / 6.6x |
| 12.0x | 29% / 3.5x | 34% / 4.3x | 38% / 5.0x | 40% / 5.4x | 42% / 5.8x |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline -6% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 8.5x to 6.9x, adding 1.6 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $5.3M | — | $5.3M | 22.9% |
| Year 1 | $5.5M | +$814K | $6.3M | 27.0% |
| Year 2 | $5.6M | +$1.2M | $6.8M | 29.5% |
| Year 3 | $5.8M | +$1.2M | $7.0M | 30.2% |
| Year 4 | $6.0M | +$1.2M | $7.2M | 31.0% |
| Year 5 | $6.2M | +$1.2M | $7.4M | 31.8% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $232K | $348K | $464K | $557K |
| Denial Rate Reductio | $230K | $345K | $460K | $552K |
| A/R Days Reduction | $141K | $212K | $282K | $339K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $7K | $11K | $15K | $18K |
| Total | $611K | $916K | $1.2M | $1.5M |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 17 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | 22.9% | -24.8% | -3.8% | 9.5% | P94 |
| Net-to-Gross | 55.9% | 17.0% | 47.2% | 66.9% | P65 |
| Occupancy | 86.7% | 55.2% | 70.8% | 75.7% | P82 |
| Rev/Bed | $611K | $415K | $595K | $702K | P53 |
| Exp/Bed | $471K | $434K | $495K | $986K | P35 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.