Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 75% of modeled bridge. Strengths: Occupancy Rate, Bed Count. Risks: Revenue per Bed. Risk-adjusted uplift: $0.7M (vs $0.9M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $345K | $345K | $0 | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $332K | $9K | $342K | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $53K | $157K | $210K | $662K | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $11K | $11K | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 58.3% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $86K | $173K | $259K | $345K | $345K | $345K | $345K |
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $85K | $171K | $256K | $342K | $342K | $342K | $342K |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $70K | $140K | $210K | $210K | $210K | $210K | $210K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $6K | $11K | $11K | $11K | $11K | $11K | $11K |
| Cumulative | $0 | $247K | $494K | $736K | $908K | $908K | $908K | $908K |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $908K is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | 45% / 6.3x | 49% / 7.4x | 53% / 8.4x | 55% / 9.0x | 57% / 9.5x |
| 9.0x | 39% / 5.3x | 44% / 6.2x | 48% / 7.2x | 50% / 7.6x | 52% / 8.1x |
| 10.0x | 35% / 4.4x | 39% / 5.3x | 44% / 6.1x | 46% / 6.5x | 47% / 7.0x |
| 11.0x | 30% / 3.7x | 35% / 4.5x | 39% / 5.3x | 41% / 5.6x | 43% / 6.0x |
| 12.0x | 26% / 3.1x | 31% / 3.8x | 35% / 4.5x | 37% / 4.9x | 39% / 5.3x |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline -13% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 8.5x to 7.4x, adding 1.1 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $6.1M | — | $6.1M | 35.2% |
| Year 1 | $6.3M | +$605K | $6.9M | 39.8% |
| Year 2 | $6.5M | +$908K | $7.4M | 42.7% |
| Year 3 | $6.6M | +$908K | $7.6M | 43.8% |
| Year 4 | $6.8M | +$908K | $7.8M | 44.9% |
| Year 5 | $7.0M | +$908K | $8.0M | 46.1% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $173K | $259K | $345K | $414K |
| Denial Rate Reductio | $171K | $256K | $342K | $410K |
| A/R Days Reduction | $105K | $157K | $210K | $252K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $6K | $8K | $11K | $13K |
| Total | $454K | $681K | $908K | $1.1M |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 55 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | 35.2% | -26.7% | -1.9% | 7.4% | P96 |
| Net-to-Gross | 15.5% | 20.2% | 29.4% | 58.3% | P13 |
| Occupancy | 85.0% | 33.3% | 56.3% | 80.3% | P82 |
| Rev/Bed | $575K | $257K | $502K | $648K | P64 |
| Exp/Bed | $372K | $401K | $536K | $996K | P20 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.