ML Analysis — SSH - PANAMA CITY INC
CCN 102017 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health16/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position10/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
3.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 35.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-25.0%, 31.6%]. P70 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 372397.500 | +0.1583 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 575068.133 | -0.1402 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.032 | +0.0578 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.072 | +0.0372 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.155 | -0.0240 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$3.7M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
56.6%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
FL distress rate: 30.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.850 | -0.301 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.533 | +0.035 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.155 | -0.095 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 575068.133 | +0.059 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 30.000 | -0.016 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.7M
Current margin: 35.2%
Projected margin: 56.6%
Grade: A
Comps: 54
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.467 | 0.654 | 18.8% | $2.8M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.155 | 0.587 | 43.2% | $873K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |