Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 63% of modeled bridge. Risks: Revenue per Bed, Occupancy Rate. Risk-adjusted uplift: $0.3M (vs $0.5M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $187K | $8K | $195K | $0 | 12mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $194K | $194K | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $30K | $88K | $118K | $372K | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $10K | $10K | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 30.6% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $49K | $97K | $146K | $195K | $195K | $195K | $195K |
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $48K | $97K | $145K | $194K | $194K | $194K | $194K |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $39K | $79K | $118K | $118K | $118K | $118K | $118K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $5K | $10K | $10K | $10K | $10K | $10K | $10K |
| Cumulative | $0 | $141K | $283K | $419K | $516K | $516K | $516K | $516K |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $516K is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | Loss | Loss | Loss | Loss | Loss |
| 9.0x | Loss | Loss | Loss | Loss | Loss |
| 10.0x | Loss | Loss | Loss | Loss | Loss |
| 11.0x | Loss | Loss | Loss | Loss | Loss |
| 12.0x | Loss | Loss | Loss | Loss | Loss |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline 0% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 99.0x to 99.0x, adding 0.0 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $-8.6M | — | $-8.6M | -89.1% |
| Year 1 | $-8.9M | +$344K | $-8.6M | -88.2% |
| Year 2 | $-9.2M | +$516K | $-8.6M | -89.2% |
| Year 3 | $-9.4M | +$516K | $-8.9M | -92.0% |
| Year 4 | $-9.7M | +$516K | $-9.2M | -94.9% |
| Year 5 | $-10.0M | +$516K | $-9.5M | -97.9% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate Reductio | $97K | $146K | $195K | $234K |
| Cost to Collect | $97K | $145K | $194K | $233K |
| A/R Days Reduction | $59K | $88K | $118K | $142K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $5K | $7K | $10K | $12K |
| Total | $258K | $387K | $516K | $620K |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 189 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | -50.0% | -20.5% | -4.6% | 4.6% | P0 |
| Net-to-Gross | 51.0% | 18.2% | 23.3% | 30.6% | P87 |
| Occupancy | 44.8% | 44.6% | 58.3% | 72.2% | P26 |
| Rev/Bed | $81K | $599K | $1.1M | $2.1M | P1 |
| Exp/Bed | $154K | $644K | $1.3M | $2.3M | P1 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.