Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 62% of modeled bridge. Strengths: Revenue per Bed. Risks: Occupancy Rate. Risk-adjusted uplift: $4.9M (vs $7.9M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $3.0M | $3.0M | $0 | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $2.9M | $83K | $3.0M | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $463K | $1.4M | $1.8M | $5.8M | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $97K | $97K | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 40.3% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $754K | $1.5M | $2.3M | $3.0M | $3.0M | $3.0M | $3.0M |
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $747K | $1.5M | $2.2M | $3.0M | $3.0M | $3.0M | $3.0M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $612K | $1.2M | $1.8M | $1.8M | $1.8M | $1.8M | $1.8M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $48K | $97K | $97K | $97K | $97K | $97K | $97K |
| Cumulative | $0 | $2.2M | $4.3M | $6.4M | $7.9M | $7.9M | $7.9M | $7.9M |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $7.9M is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | 45% / 6.5x | 50% / 7.5x | 54% / 8.6x | 56% / 9.2x | 58% / 9.7x |
| 9.0x | 40% / 5.4x | 45% / 6.3x | 49% / 7.3x | 51% / 7.8x | 53% / 8.3x |
| 10.0x | 35% / 4.5x | 40% / 5.4x | 44% / 6.2x | 46% / 6.7x | 48% / 7.1x |
| 11.0x | 31% / 3.8x | 36% / 4.6x | 40% / 5.4x | 42% / 5.8x | 44% / 6.2x |
| 12.0x | 26% / 3.2x | 32% / 4.0x | 36% / 4.7x | 38% / 5.0x | 40% / 5.4x |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline -11% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 8.5x to 7.2x, adding 1.2 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $46.9M | — | $46.9M | 31.1% |
| Year 1 | $48.3M | +$5.3M | $53.6M | 35.6% |
| Year 2 | $49.8M | +$7.9M | $57.7M | 38.3% |
| Year 3 | $51.3M | +$7.9M | $59.2M | 39.3% |
| Year 4 | $52.8M | +$7.9M | $60.8M | 40.3% |
| Year 5 | $54.4M | +$7.9M | $62.3M | 41.3% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $1.5M | $2.3M | $3.0M | $3.6M |
| Denial Rate Reductio | $1.5M | $2.2M | $3.0M | $3.6M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $918K | $1.4M | $1.8M | $2.2M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $48K | $72K | $97K | $116K |
| Total | $4.0M | $6.0M | $7.9M | $9.5M |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 140 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | 31.1% | -20.9% | -4.7% | 2.7% | P98 |
| Net-to-Gross | 27.3% | 19.9% | 26.5% | 40.3% | P52 |
| Occupancy | 17.7% | 41.6% | 56.7% | 72.2% | P1 |
| Rev/Bed | $2.2M | $501K | $829K | $2.0M | P80 |
| Exp/Bed | $1.5M | $532K | $916K | $2.0M | P63 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.