Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 69% of modeled bridge. Strengths: Revenue per Bed, Payer Diversity. Risks: Commercial Payer %, Bed Count. Risk-adjusted uplift: $21.5M (vs $31.3M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $11.9M | $11.9M | $0 | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $11.5M | $327K | $11.8M | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $1.8M | $5.4M | $7.2M | $22.8M | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $381K | $381K | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 29.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $3.0M | $6.0M | $8.9M | $11.9M | $11.9M | $11.9M | $11.9M |
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $2.9M | $5.9M | $8.8M | $11.8M | $11.8M | $11.8M | $11.8M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $2.4M | $4.8M | $7.2M | $7.2M | $7.2M | $7.2M | $7.2M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $191K | $381K | $381K | $381K | $381K | $381K | $381K |
| Cumulative | $0 | $8.5M | $17.1M | $25.4M | $31.3M | $31.3M | $31.3M | $31.3M |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $31.3M is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | 57% / 9.6x | 62% / 11.0x | 66% / 12.4x | 67% / 13.1x | 69% / 13.8x |
| 9.0x | 52% / 8.2x | 57% / 9.4x | 61% / 10.7x | 62% / 11.3x | 64% / 11.9x |
| 10.0x | 48% / 7.0x | 52% / 8.2x | 56% / 9.3x | 58% / 9.9x | 60% / 10.4x |
| 11.0x | 43% / 6.1x | 48% / 7.1x | 52% / 8.2x | 54% / 8.7x | 56% / 9.2x |
| 12.0x | 40% / 5.3x | 44% / 6.2x | 48% / 7.2x | 50% / 7.7x | 52% / 8.2x |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline 18% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 8.5x to 5.3x, adding 3.2 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $52.7M | — | $52.7M | 8.8% |
| Year 1 | $54.3M | +$20.9M | $75.1M | 12.6% |
| Year 2 | $55.9M | +$31.3M | $87.2M | 14.6% |
| Year 3 | $57.6M | +$31.3M | $88.9M | 14.9% |
| Year 4 | $59.3M | +$31.3M | $90.6M | 15.2% |
| Year 5 | $61.1M | +$31.3M | $92.4M | 15.5% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $6.0M | $8.9M | $11.9M | $14.3M |
| Denial Rate Reductio | $5.9M | $8.8M | $11.8M | $14.1M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $3.6M | $5.4M | $7.2M | $8.7M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $191K | $286K | $381K | $457K |
| Total | $15.7M | $23.5M | $31.3M | $37.6M |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 197 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | 8.8% | -16.1% | -3.9% | 4.6% | P84 |
| Net-to-Gross | 28.9% | 17.2% | 22.4% | 29.0% | P74 |
| Occupancy | 55.5% | 52.5% | 64.6% | 75.3% | P31 |
| Rev/Bed | $2.5M | $1.1M | $1.6M | $2.5M | P76 |
| Exp/Bed | $2.3M | $1.2M | $1.8M | $2.6M | P66 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.