ML Analysis — KFH- SAN JOSE
CCN 050604 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
57
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health17/25
RCM Upside10/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
1.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 8.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-27.0%, 29.6%]. P66 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2533338.192 | +0.1332 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2309146.830 | -0.0803 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.460 | +0.0252 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.274 | -0.0207 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1405378.776 | +0.0177 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
43.5%
Distress Risk
$1.4M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
9.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P60. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.009 | -0.079 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2533338.191 | -0.056 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.044 | -0.049 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.289 | -0.036 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.555 | -0.027 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 235.000 | +0.012 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.4M
Current margin: 8.8%
Projected margin: 9.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 196
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.555 | 0.754 | 20.0% | $1.3M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.289 | 0.290 | 0.1% | $101K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |