Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 65% of modeled bridge. Risks: Occupancy Rate, Revenue per Bed. Risk-adjusted uplift: $3.4M (vs $5.2M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $2.0M | $2.0M | $0 | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $1.9M | $54K | $2.0M | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $303K | $899K | $1.2M | $3.8M | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $63K | $63K | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 30.6% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $494K | $988K | $1.5M | $2.0M | $2.0M | $2.0M | $2.0M |
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $489K | $979K | $1.5M | $2.0M | $2.0M | $2.0M | $2.0M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $401K | $802K | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.2M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $32K | $63K | $63K | $63K | $63K | $63K | $63K |
| Cumulative | $0 | $1.4M | $2.8M | $4.2M | $5.2M | $5.2M | $5.2M | $5.2M |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $5.2M is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | 53% / 8.4x | 58% / 9.7x | 62% / 11.0x | 63% / 11.7x | 65% / 12.3x |
| 9.0x | 48% / 7.1x | 53% / 8.3x | 57% / 9.4x | 58% / 10.0x | 60% / 10.6x |
| 10.0x | 43% / 6.1x | 48% / 7.1x | 52% / 8.2x | 54% / 8.7x | 56% / 9.2x |
| 11.0x | 39% / 5.2x | 44% / 6.2x | 48% / 7.1x | 50% / 7.6x | 52% / 8.1x |
| 12.0x | 35% / 4.5x | 40% / 5.4x | 44% / 6.3x | 46% / 6.7x | 48% / 7.1x |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline 9% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 8.5x to 5.9x, adding 2.6 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $11.9M | — | $11.9M | 12.1% |
| Year 1 | $12.3M | +$3.5M | $15.8M | 15.9% |
| Year 2 | $12.7M | +$5.2M | $17.9M | 18.1% |
| Year 3 | $13.0M | +$5.2M | $18.2M | 18.5% |
| Year 4 | $13.4M | +$5.2M | $18.6M | 18.9% |
| Year 5 | $13.8M | +$5.2M | $19.0M | 19.3% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $988K | $1.5M | $2.0M | $2.4M |
| Denial Rate Reductio | $979K | $1.5M | $2.0M | $2.3M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $601K | $902K | $1.2M | $1.4M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $32K | $47K | $63K | $76K |
| Total | $2.6M | $3.9M | $5.2M | $6.2M |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 181 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | 12.1% | -20.5% | -4.6% | 4.4% | P88 |
| Net-to-Gross | 27.1% | 17.8% | 22.5% | 30.6% | P62 |
| Occupancy | 41.7% | 44.4% | 58.8% | 72.4% | P21 |
| Rev/Bed | $883K | $589K | $1.0M | $2.1M | P43 |
| Exp/Bed | $776K | $641K | $1.2M | $2.3M | P34 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.