Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 67% of modeled bridge. Strengths: Commercial Payer %. Risks: Revenue per Bed. Risk-adjusted uplift: $3.7M (vs $5.5M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $2.1M | $2.1M | $0 | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $2.0M | $58K | $2.1M | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $323K | $957K | $1.3M | $4.0M | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $67K | $67K | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 29.4% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $526K | $1.1M | $1.6M | $2.1M | $2.1M | $2.1M | $2.1M |
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $520K | $1.0M | $1.6M | $2.1M | $2.1M | $2.1M | $2.1M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $426K | $853K | $1.3M | $1.3M | $1.3M | $1.3M | $1.3M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $34K | $67K | $67K | $67K | $67K | $67K | $67K |
| Cumulative | $0 | $1.5M | $3.0M | $4.5M | $5.5M | $5.5M | $5.5M | $5.5M |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $5.5M is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x |
| 9.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x |
| 10.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x |
| 11.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x |
| 12.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline 463% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 99.0x to -23.6x, adding 122.6 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $-4.1M | — | $-4.1M | -3.9% |
| Year 1 | $-4.2M | +$3.7M | $-505K | -0.5% |
| Year 2 | $-4.3M | +$5.5M | $1.2M | 1.2% |
| Year 3 | $-4.4M | +$5.5M | $1.1M | 1.0% |
| Year 4 | $-4.6M | +$5.5M | $949K | 0.9% |
| Year 5 | $-4.7M | +$5.5M | $812K | 0.8% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $1.1M | $1.6M | $2.1M | $2.5M |
| Denial Rate Reductio | $1.0M | $1.6M | $2.1M | $2.5M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $640K | $959K | $1.3M | $1.5M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $34K | $50K | $67K | $81K |
| Total | $2.8M | $4.1M | $5.5M | $6.6M |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 193 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | -3.9% | -18.1% | -3.6% | 4.8% | P49 |
| Net-to-Gross | 57.3% | 17.9% | 22.5% | 29.4% | P93 |
| Occupancy | 50.9% | 44.8% | 57.7% | 72.2% | P37 |
| Rev/Bed | $790K | $623K | $1.1M | $2.2M | P33 |
| Exp/Bed | $821K | $681K | $1.4M | $2.3M | P32 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.