Value Backtester
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
About this page
Value-creation backtester: compares a proposed bridge-by-lever plan against corpus P50/P75 base rates, applies lever-level realization rates from the corpus (multiple arbitrage and exit re-rating historically ~48% realized; organic growth and operating leverage ~80%), and returns a risk-adjusted bridge. Distinct from /corpus-backtest (deal-level prediction vs realized).
Source: data_public/value_backtester.py; base_rates.py.
Value-Creation Backtester
Predicted MOIC vs realized base rates · lever attribution · calibration chart · comparable deal cohort — 1,540 corpus deals
VALUE BRIDGE BACKTEST
This page backtests an individual deal model — predicted MOIC vs corpus calibration + lever attribution. For the platform prediction audit (how well platform outputs matched realized outcomes across the 655-deal corpus) see /corpus-backtest.
Target Sector
ASC
Predicted MOIC
2.65x
Entry Multiple
11.50x
Sector P50 Realized
2.80x
Sector P90 Realized
4.00x
Calibration Gap
-5.4%
Comparable Deals
12
Corpus
1,540
Backtest Verdict
IN LINE — predicted MOIC consistent with realized base rate
Predicted 2.65x vs sector P50 realized 2.80x (gap -5.4%)
Calibration Chart — Predicted vs Realized MOIC
Value-Creation Lever Attribution — Target vs Base Rate
| Lever | Target ($M) | Base Rate P50 ($M) | Base Rate P75 ($M) | Realization % | Risk-Adj ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Organic Revenue Growth | $22.14 | $19.25 | $24.50 | 82.0% | $18.15 |
| Margin Expansion | $6.62 | $5.76 | $7.44 | 68.0% | $4.50 |
| Multiple Arbitrage (M&A) | $19.66 | $17.10 | $24.75 | 55.0% | $10.82 |
| Synergy Realization | $3.86 | $3.36 | $4.64 | 62.0% | $2.40 |
| RCM / Billing Optimization | $4.83 | $4.20 | $6.30 | 75.0% | $3.62 |
| Payer Rate Uplift | $3.22 | $2.80 | $4.90 | 55.0% | $1.77 |
| Operating Leverage | $3.04 | $2.64 | $3.84 | 72.0% | $2.19 |
| Platform Re-Rating @ Exit | $32.08 | $27.90 | $38.25 | 48.0% | $15.40 |
Corpus Base-Rate Buckets — Sector × Vintage × Size
| Sector | Vintage | Size | N | Realized MOIC P25 | P50 | P75 | Mean | IRR P50 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-2022 | $700M+ | 15 | 0.38x | 2.20x | 3.35x | 2.03x | 17.0% | |
| health_it | 2013-2016 | $700M+ | 10 | 2.00x | 3.00x | 3.42x | 2.80x | 27.0% |
| growth_equity | 2017-2019 | $300-700M | 6 | 3.80x | 4.15x | 4.88x | 4.35x | 59.5% |
| managed_care | 2017-2019 | $700M+ | 6 | 2.35x | 2.90x | 3.60x | 2.97x | 35.0% |
| health_it | 2017-2019 | $700M+ | 6 | 2.35x | 2.75x | 3.00x | 2.75x | 21.0% |
| 2023+ | $700M+ | 5 | 1.40x | 1.50x | 2.10x | 2.02x | 15.0% | |
| physician_group | 2013-2016 | $700M+ | 5 | 1.10x | 1.40x | 2.50x | 1.66x | 5.0% |
| health_it | 2017-2019 | $100-300M | 5 | 4.10x | 4.50x | 5.00x | 4.52x | 41.0% |
| home_health | 2017-2019 | $700M+ | 5 | 2.40x | 2.80x | 3.00x | 2.64x | 24.0% |
| strategic_acquisition | 2020-2022 | $700M+ | 4 | 4.20x | 6.25x | 7.50x | 5.45x | 38.0% |
| hospital | 2013-2016 | $700M+ | 4 | 1.73x | 2.35x | 2.75x | 2.12x | 16.0% |
| physician_group | 2017-2019 | $700M+ | 4 | 1.52x | 2.50x | 3.12x | 2.15x | 24.0% |
| 2020-2022 | $300-700M | 3 | 1.95x | 2.10x | 2.20x | 2.07x | 19.0% | |
| merger | 2017-2019 | $700M+ | 3 | 2.30x | 2.50x | 2.80x | 2.57x | 20.0% |
| secondary_buyout | 2017-2019 | $700M+ | 3 | 2.55x | 2.90x | 2.95x | 2.70x | 24.0% |
| take_private | 2013-2016 | $700M+ | 3 | 1.25x | 2.10x | 2.15x | 1.57x | 13.0% |
| asc | 2017-2019 | $700M+ | 3 | 3.20x | 3.80x | 3.80x | 3.40x | 20.0% |
| managed_care | 2013-2016 | $300-700M | 3 | 1.15x | 2.20x | 3.85x | 2.60x | 17.0% |
| behavioral_health | 2017-2019 | $300-700M | 3 | 2.00x | 2.80x | 2.90x | 2.33x | 23.0% |
| managed_care | 2020-2022 | $700M+ | 3 | 3.10x | 3.20x | 3.85x | 3.57x | 26.0% |
| hospital | 2017-2019 | $700M+ | 3 | 2.25x | 2.50x | 2.65x | 2.43x | 19.0% |
| physician_group | 2017-2019 | $100-300M | 3 | 3.75x | 4.00x | 4.25x | 4.00x | 37.0% |
| health_it | 2013-2016 | $300-700M | 3 | 3.25x | 3.50x | 4.00x | 3.67x | 32.0% |
| behavioral_health | 2017-2019 | $700M+ | 3 | 1.45x | 2.50x | 2.85x | 2.03x | 23.0% |
| physician_group | 2020-2022 | $700M+ | 3 | 2.00x | 2.80x | 3.15x | 2.50x | 28.0% |
| health_it | 2020-2022 | $700M+ | 3 | 0.85x | 1.50x | 2.35x | 1.63x | 20.5% |
| Pain Management | 2017-2019 | $100-300M | 3 | 2.65x | 2.70x | 2.75x | 2.70x | 20.9% |
| Physical Therapy | 2017-2019 | $100-300M | 3 | 2.65x | 2.90x | 2.95x | 2.77x | 21.4% |
| Sports Medicine | 2017-2019 | $100-300M | 3 | 2.45x | 2.60x | 2.65x | 2.53x | 20.3% |
| Fertility / IVF | 2017-2019 | $300-700M | 3 | 2.85x | 2.90x | 2.95x | 2.90x | 20.6% |
| Nephrology Practice | 2017-2019 | $300-700M | 3 | 2.55x | 2.60x | 2.65x | 2.60x | 21.1% |
MOIC Calibration Detail
| Predicted MOIC | Realized P25 | Realized P50 | Realized P75 | N Deals | Calibration Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.75x | 1.50x | 1.80x | 1.80x | 28 | +2.9% |
| 2.15x | 2.10x | 2.10x | 2.20x | 64 | -2.3% |
| 2.45x | 2.40x | 2.50x | 2.50x | 80 | +2.0% |
| 2.80x | 2.62x | 2.80x | 2.80x | 150 | +0.0% |
| 51.00x | 3.20x | 3.50x | 3.80x | 317 | -93.1% |
Driver Attribution — What Predicts Realized MOIC
| Driver | Correlation | P50 Realized MOIC | P75 Realized MOIC | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA Margin > 22% | +0.68 | 2.75x | 3.20x | strong |
| Commercial Payer Mix > 50% | +0.42 | 2.45x | 2.90x | moderate |
| Entry Multiple < 11x | +0.52 | 2.62x | 3.10x | strong |
| Hold Period 4-5 years | +0.38 | 2.35x | 2.80x | moderate |
| Sector: ASC / Outpatient | +0.48 | 2.58x | 3.00x | strong |
| Sector: Home Health / Hospice | -0.22 | 1.95x | 2.35x | negative |
| Revenue Size > $150M | +0.33 | 2.40x | 2.85x | moderate |
| Target Geography: Sun Belt | +0.28 | 2.30x | 2.70x | moderate |
| Vintage 2016-2019 | +0.45 | 2.55x | 3.05x | strong |
| Platform vs Bolt-On | +0.38 | 2.45x | 2.90x | moderate |
Most Similar Corpus Deals
| Comparable Deal | Sector | Year | Entry Mult | Realized MOIC | Hold (yr) | Similarity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Surgical Partners | ASC | 2018 | 12.50x | 2.60x | 5.0 | 0.981 |
| Vanguard ASC Holdings | ASC | 2016 | 13.00x | 3.40x | 6.0 | 0.779 |
| TeamHealth – Blackstone 1st LB | 2009 | 0.00x | 2.60x | 4.5 | 0.294 | |
| PharMerica / KKR Acquisition | take_private | 2017 | 11.70x | 2.70x | 5.0 | 0.294 |
| BrightSpring Health Services H | home health / community- | 2019 | 10.80x | 2.60x | 4.5 | 0.294 |
| Kindred Healthcare / TPG + Hum | ltach_post_acute | 2018 | 10.80x | 2.60x | 4.0 | 0.294 |
| InfuSystem / ABRY Partners LBO | infusion | 2015 | 11.00x | 2.60x | 5.0 | 0.294 |
| CONMED Corporation / Gyrus Med | asc | 2017 | 16.00x | 2.60x | 4.0 | 0.294 |
| CRH Medical – Ares Management | Gastroenterology | 2021 | 10.40x | 2.60x | 3.5 | 0.294 |
| National Spine & Pain Centers | Pain Management | 2019 | 10.00x | 2.70x | 4.0 | 0.294 |
| Kindred at Home – TPG Capital | Home Health | 2018 | 11.40x | 2.70x | 3.0 | 0.294 |
| HealthMarket – Welsh Carson po | Managed Care / Medical G | 2013 | 7.60x | 2.60x | 5.0 | 0.294 |
Backtester Methodology: Corpus of 1,540 deals partitioned into 31 bucketed realized-outcome cohorts (n≥3).
Base rates computed at P25/P50/P75 of realized MOIC. Predicted MOIC compared to sector-level P50 realized base rate to produce calibration gap.
Lever-level realization rates derived from corpus observation — multiple arbitrage and exit re-rating have historically underperformed targets (~48%),
while organic growth and operating leverage are more reliable (~80%).
Use this to interrogate any proposed value-creation plan: which levers are overweighted relative to base rate?