Red-Flag Scanner
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Deal Red-Flag Scanner
Rule-based red-flag detection · corpus-benchmarked · severity-ranked · IC-ready — 1,525 corpus deals
Target
Target Platform
Sector
Primary Care
EV
$185M
EV/EBITDA
14.50x
Total Flags
5
Critical
2
Risk Score
65
Corpus Deals
1,525
IC Recommendation
DO NOT PROCEED — critical issues require resolution
Risk score 65/100 · 5 total flags (2 critical, 1 high)
Category-Level Severity
Full Flag Inventory — Severity-Ranked
| Severity | Category | Flag | Target | Benchmark P50 | Δ vs P50 | Evidence | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRITICAL | Revenue Quality | Single-payer concentration exceeds 45% | 52.0% | 30.0% | +73.3% | Top payer holds 52.0% of revenue — rate-reset leverage at renewal | Diversify in hold period via 2nd-payer contracting strategy |
| CRITICAL | Return Thesis | Projected MOIC below sector median | 1.80 | 2.70 | -33.3% | Projected 1.80x vs sector P50 2.70x | Tighten value-creation plan; reduce check size |
| HIGH | Margin Quality | EBITDA margin below sector P25 | 17.0% | 21.0% | -19.1% | Margin 17.0% vs sector P50 21.0%, P25 18.0% | Validate margin expansion roadmap; assume slower ramp in base case |
| MEDIUM | Timing | Vintage 2021+ — peak multiple environment | 2024 | 2020 | +0.0% | Vintage year 2024 acquired at historically elevated multiples | Require strong operational thesis (not purely multiple arbitrage) |
| MEDIUM | Valuation | Entry multiple above sector median | 14.50 | 13.00 | +11.5% | Target at 14.50x vs sector P50 13.00x | Require seller concessions or structure earn-out; confirm quality of earnings |
Category Rollup
| Category | Flags | Critical | High | Medium | Low | Weighted Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Quality | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 85.0 |
| Return Thesis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 85.0 |
| Margin Quality | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 65.0 |
| Timing | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 50.0 |
| Valuation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 40.0 |
Corpus Comparable Deals (same sector)
| Comparable Deal | Sector | Year | MOIC | Flag Overlap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GraniteCare Family Practice Group | Primary Care | 2017 | 2.20x | 5 |
| Summit Primary Care Partners | Primary Care | 2018 | 2.40x | 2 |
| Cornerstone Primary Care Alliance | Primary Care | 2018 | 2.50x | 4 |
| BlueSky Family Medicine Holdings | Primary Care | 2017 | 3.10x | 5 |
Scanner Methodology: Each flag compares target metric against 1,525-deal corpus base rates.
P50/P90 benchmarks are sector-specific where n≥5; otherwise fall back to full-corpus. Severity is derived from magnitude of deviation from P50.
This scanner is intended as a pre-IC screen — flags marked critical should be resolved or explicitly accepted in the IC memo before committing capital.
Use in conjunction with /base-rates for numeric context and /sponsor-heatmap for sponsor-sector pattern check.