Physician Labor
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Physician Labor Market Tracker
Supply/demand by specialty · wage inflation · NP/PA extender economics · burnout index · geographic HPSA mapping — 1,675 corpus deals
Active Physicians
761,500
Median Age
52.9
Specialties in Shortage
12
Wage Inflation LTM
+6.4%
Specialties Covered
15
Extender FTE
556,500
Burnout Specialties
10
Corpus Deals
1,675
Specialty-Level Supply/Demand & 2030 Shortage Projection
| Specialty | Active | Grad Supply | Retirements | Net Change | Median Age | 2030 Shortage | Wage Inflation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary Care / Family Med | 120,000 | 3,950 | 5,850 | -1,900 | 53 | 48,000 | +6.2% |
| Internal Medicine | 155,000 | 8,200 | 7,500 | +700 | 55 | 25,000 | +5.5% |
| Pediatrics | 65,000 | 3,150 | 2,850 | +300 | 51 | 8,500 | +4.8% |
| Psychiatry | 48,500 | 1,850 | 2,200 | -350 | 58 | 22,000 | +8.8% |
| Anesthesiology | 52,000 | 1,825 | 2,650 | -825 | 52 | 15,500 | +7.2% |
| Emergency Medicine | 48,000 | 2,450 | 2,200 | +250 | 48 | 5,500 | +6.8% |
| Radiology | 42,000 | 1,350 | 2,150 | -800 | 54 | 18,500 | +7.4% |
| OB/GYN | 42,500 | 1,325 | 1,950 | -625 | 52 | 8,500 | +5.8% |
| Cardiology | 32,500 | 950 | 1,450 | -500 | 56 | 9,500 | +6.5% |
| Orthopedic Surgery | 28,500 | 775 | 1,200 | -425 | 54 | 7,500 | +6.8% |
| Gastroenterology | 18,500 | 525 | 825 | -300 | 55 | 5,500 | +7.5% |
| Dermatology | 14,500 | 525 | 485 | +40 | 52 | 1,500 | +5.5% |
| Ophthalmology | 22,000 | 475 | 875 | -400 | 55 | 5,500 | +4.8% |
| Urology | 14,500 | 350 | 625 | -275 | 56 | 3,500 | +6.2% |
| Hospitalist | 58,000 | 2,850 | 2,200 | +650 | 45 | 2,500 | +8.5% |
Wage Growth 2019-2024 & Locum Premia
| Specialty | 2019 Median ($k) | 2024 Median ($k) | CAGR | Locum Premium | Signing Bonus ($k) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary Care / Family Med | $238 | $285 | 3.7% | 68% | $45 |
| Psychiatry | $251 | $320 | 5.0% | 82% | $65 |
| Hospitalist | $245 | $312 | 4.9% | 82% | $55 |
| Anesthesiology | $398 | $485 | 4.0% | 65% | $85 |
| Emergency Medicine | $325 | $395 | 3.9% | 72% | $75 |
| Radiology | $422 | $510 | 3.9% | 68% | $85 |
| Cardiology | $465 | $575 | 4.3% | 58% | $125 |
| Orthopedic Surgery | $512 | $640 | 4.6% | 52% | $145 |
| Gastroenterology | $455 | $560 | 4.3% | 55% | $115 |
| Dermatology | $395 | $485 | 4.2% | 48% | $85 |
NP / PA / CRNA Extender Economics
| Category | FTE Supply | Productivity vs MD | Cost Ratio vs MD | Scope | Full-Practice States |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nurse Practitioner (Primary Care) | 234,000 | 78% | 48% | full (most states) | 27 |
| Physician Assistant (All) | 168,000 | 72% | 52% | collaborative (all states) | 0 |
| CRNA (Nurse Anesthetist) | 58,000 | 92% | 62% | full in 17 states, collab elsewhere | 17 |
| CNM (Nurse Midwife) | 14,500 | 85% | 58% | full (most states) | 32 |
| Psych NP | 28,500 | 85% | 52% | full (23 states) | 23 |
| Acute Care NP (Hospitalist) | 32,500 | 75% | 55% | hospital-based | 0 |
| Derm PA (Cosmetic/Medical) | 8,500 | 68% | 55% | collaborative | 0 |
| Ortho PA (Surgical) | 12,500 | 70% | 55% | collaborative | 0 |
Burnout & Retention Index
| Specialty | Burnout Rate | 3-Yr Attrition | Reduced Hours | Retention Invest PMPY ($k) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emergency Medicine | 65% | 22% | 28% | $8.5 |
| Critical Care | 62% | 20% | 32% | $7.2 |
| Internal Medicine | 55% | 18% | 25% | $5.8 |
| Family Medicine | 52% | 16% | 22% | $5.2 |
| OB/GYN | 54% | 17% | 24% | $6.5 |
| Radiology | 48% | 12% | 18% | $4.5 |
| Psychiatry | 42% | 14% | 32% | $3.8 |
| Anesthesiology | 38% | 10% | 15% | $3.5 |
| Dermatology | 32% | 8% | 14% | $2.5 |
| Orthopedic Surgery | 35% | 9% | 12% | $3.2 |
Geographic Physician Density & HPSA Designation
| Region Type | Phys/100k | Severity | HPSA Score | Loan Repayment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urban Core (population >1M) | 385 | no shortage | — | NO |
| Urban Suburban | 265 | no shortage | — | NO |
| Mid-Size Metro (250k-1M) | 215 | mild shortage | 12 | NO |
| Small Metro (50k-250k) | 165 | moderate shortage | 17 | YES |
| Rural (non-metro) | 98 | severe shortage | 22 | YES |
| Frontier / Remote | 52 | critical shortage | 24 | YES |
| Tribal / Indian Health Service | 88 | severe shortage | 23 | YES |
| Inner-City Underserved | 142 | moderate shortage | 19 | YES |
Labor Market Thesis: 761,500 active physicians; median age 52.9; 12 specialties in shortage by 2030.
Aggregate 2030 shortage projected at 187,000 physicians — primary care, psychiatry, and anesthesiology are the most acute gaps.
Wage inflation running at 6.4% blended; psychiatry, hospitalist, and GI specialties see 7-9% annual wage growth.
NP/PA extender strategy delivers 68-92% of MD productivity at 48-62% of cost — a critical labor-arbitrage lever, especially in full-practice-authority states.
Rural/frontier markets offer HPSA loan-repayment programs and premium-rate negotiating leverage. Post-COVID burnout drives 16-22% 3-year attrition in front-line specialties.