ML Analysis — TRUSTPOINT REHABILITATION HOSPITAL O
CCN 673063 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
45
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside8/25
Market Position4/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-0.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 10.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-28.3%, 28.3%]. P62 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 598200.517 | +0.1305 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 666765.917 | -0.1274 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0290 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.499 | +0.0147 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 60.000 | +0.0138 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$4.3M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
21.1%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
TX distress rate: 42.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.723 | -0.184 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.509 | +0.031 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.499 | +0.058 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 666765.917 | +0.054 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 60.000 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.3M
Current margin: 10.3%
Projected margin: 21.1%
Grade: B
Comps: 231
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.491 | 0.779 | 28.8% | $4.3M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |