ML Analysis — ACCEL REHABILITATION HOSPITAL PLANO
CCN 673055 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
36
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside10/25
Market Position2/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-4.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 7.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-32.7%, 23.9%]. P51 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 96766.040 | -0.2069 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 89244.450 | +0.1932 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.708 | +0.0381 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0290 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 13590.126 | -0.0285 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
nan%
Distress Risk
$12.5M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
94.3%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
TX distress rate: 42.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.140 | +0.357 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.737 | +0.070 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.708 | +0.151 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 96766.040 | +0.088 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 149.000 | +0.000 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $12.5M
Current margin: 7.8%
Projected margin: 94.3%
Grade: A
Comps: 168
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.263 | 0.831 | 56.7% | $8.5M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.140 | 0.742 | 60.2% | $4.0M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |