ML Analysis — TEXAS REHAB HOSPITAL OF FT. WORTH
CCN 673048 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health16/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position2/20
Demand Defensibility12/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
0.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 26.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-28.0%, 28.6%]. P63 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 348228.379 | +0.1613 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 472780.500 | -0.1545 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0290 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.281 | -0.0228 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.544 | +0.0197 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$4.0M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
39.2%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
TX distress rate: 42.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.765 | -0.223 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.484 | +0.027 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.544 | +0.078 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 472780.500 | +0.065 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 66.000 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.0M
Current margin: 26.3%
Projected margin: 39.2%
Grade: B
Comps: 225
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.516 | 0.783 | 26.7% | $4.0M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |